Formula 1 is extremely popular at the moment. The bookmakers offer more betting options than ever, so if you’re sharp, you can possibly make some money on it. Worst case, you’ll be more entertained while watching the races.
The regular sportsbooks and exchanges offer markets such as outright winners, pole-sitters, podiums, safety cars, etc.
While the sharp bookmakers focus almost solely on matchups between two drivers (where you simply have to pick the one you think will finish ahead).
If you’re already experienced with F1 betting and simply looking for picks, then go to this page to see my current bets, previous bets, and overall statistics. I share free picks (for entertainment purposes only) on most race weekends during the season.
But if you’re new to Formula 1 betting, I urge you to read this guide below so you’re better prepared for placing bets on F1.
The general betting principles
Regardless of the sport you bet on, success in betting always comes down to the following two factors:
- That you can spot value and find odds that are higher than they should be. Also known as having an edge, or placing +EV bets.
- That your bankroll can withstand variance, meaning you only stake a small percentage of your roll each bet.
It takes a few hundred bets before you can judge your performance. This is due to variance. So betting also requires patience – a lot of it.
Those principles apply if you are trying to earn money from sports betting in the long term, in a serious way.
If you’re only looking for some fun, it’s a different story, and in that case you should probably just place smaller amounts and enjoy the process.
Where to bet on Formula 1
The best sites for beginners are Bet365 and Bwin.
For experienced bettors with a decently sized bankroll, Pinnacle and SBO are the top choices. Cloudbet can be used if you don’t have access to Pinnacle.
Exchanges like Betfair and Polymarket are excellent for outright markets.
I go more in-depth with F1 bookmaker reviews in this article.
What markets to focus on
Within F1 betting, there are multiple markets. The most common one is head-to-head driver matchups, which I personally like because the market limits are highest.
But some bettors prefer outright markets where you have to predict who wins the race, finishes on the podium, or similar scenarios.
Other punters prefer ‘props’ which could be bets such as whether or not there will be a safety car, if a driver will lead a lap, if a team has a retirement, etc. These can be fun, and they can hold great value – but usually, you’re not able to stake that much money.
Let’s look further into each market type and see how they work, and we can spot edges.
H2H driver matchups
This is my favourite market, as it’s very simple yet dynamic.
The bookie will select two drivers and you have to choose the driver (among only those two) that you think will finish ahead of the other.
Very often, the matchups will be between teammates, but sportsbooks with a large focus on F1 may have more matchups with some different duels.
For example, at a bookmaker like Pinnacle or Cloudbet, you could see a bet like this ahead of the qualifying session:
Charles Leclerc (1.70) – Lewis Hamilton (2.10)
The question for you would be, who is going to finish ahead?
Pick the right one and you win your bet. Only those two drivers matter in terms of your bet, not the rest of the drivers in the field. So it’s a bit more simple and you can usually find +10 different matchups for each competitive session.
To spot an edge in these markets, you have to estimate who is more likely to finish ahead, and come up with a rough probability estimation. You do that by analyzing the matchup: Look at various factors such as H2H stats between the two drivers, their track history, their form, and whether their driving style suits the current car and that particular circuit.
In the previous example, you may think Leclerc is a superior qualifier most of the time and that he has a 65% chance of beating Hamilton, and in that case it would be a value bet (+2% EV). While Hamilton with a 35% chance would not hold value in this matchup (a ghastly -26.5% EV).
Outright markets
Outright markets are those where you pick a driver to win, a team to win, a driver to finish on the podium, etc.
It’s a more general category, in comparison with the isolated H2H bets. Casual bettors tend to like outright markets (after all, you can bet on your favourite driver to win) and pros often keep an eye on them too since value spots do happen.
For example, you may be able to bet Max Verstappen to win a specific race at odds 2.00. In this case, Verstappen simply has to win the GP.
But it could also be another scenario. For instance, you could bet on Nico Hülkenberg to finish in the points (top 10) at odds 2.75. If he scores points, you win. If he doesn’t, you lose.
Applying Formula 1 statistics
Statistics are frequently used in betting, by bookmakers as well as punters.
You can easily find most statistics online. Look up any F1 driver’s Wikipedia page, and you can see their number of championships, wins, poles, podiums, etc. You can even get a full overview of their career results.
But that’s not all there is to it –
As mentioned earlier, F1 betting is often focused on driver matchups where you have to select one driver to finish ahead of another. In this case, you have to compare the two.
Frequently, the H2H matchups will be between teammates. For that reason, I have created a page with H2H statistics between the teammates this season, and it covers both qualifying and races. Additionally, if you check any driver page here on RaceValue, you can view that driver’s full record against all of his previous teammates.
When you bet on a head-to-head matchup, you also have to apply more than just statistics. You have to look at the driver’s current form, his driving style and whether it suits the track, the weather conditions, and much more.
Car performance will matter greatly in matchups between drivers that aren’t teammates. Here it’s important to look at recent results and statistics between the teams to see how the cars have performed. Track tendencies are also relevant. Statistics are more difficult to apply here, since sample sizes will be much smaller for each individual track, but it’s certainly possible if you know what to look for, and if you have access to more in-depth statistical records (there are some other F1 fan sites that share these, as well as F1 stats gurus on X and Reddit).
Understanding the market
The betting market is essentially controlled by the bettors. If a few sharps are on one side, the odds will typically drop fairly quickly. The bookies adjust their risk based on the bets coming in.
F1 is full of overreactions. If a driver has a few bad races in a row, the fans and media are quick to say he has lost it. And if a driver has a hot streak, he will quickly be overrated by everyone.
Opinions on F1 are often very one-sided. Sure, there will always be discussions on whether Hamilton or Alonso is the better driver, but fans tend to agree on most things. That means there are many general biases you can exploit as a bettor.
Conclusion
Betting on Formula One is fun, and it can be profitable if you know what you’re doing. The general sports betting principles apply, however, you also need knowledge and data on the drivers and teams. And you must be able to translate what you know into probabilities – in order to spot value.
This guide was very brief, still I hope you learned something. It takes time to become good at betting, and keep in mind that F1 is a high-variance sport. Feel free to follow my picks and predictions here on the site – and consider sharing your own and participating in discussions if interested!
