The first Grand Prix of the year takes place in Melbourne on March 8. Let’s have a look at the favourites and try to make some predictions.
Preview
While Mercedes are still the public favourites, it looks like Ferrari, McLaren and potentially Red Bull have very fast cars as well. After Melbourne qualifying we will know a lot more.
That makes betting difficult for the first race weekend – but since everything is so unclear, we may also find some good opportunities.
Aston Martin have had a horrible start to the season with the drivers barely able to drive the car due to shaking issues.
In Friday practice, Ferrari and McLaren both looked like they were at the level of Mercedes. The defending world champion Lando Norris had a tough start with gearbox issues that limited his lap count.
Bets for the weekend
All picks will be posted here (as well as on Bettin.gs, Reddit and X).
Qualifying
Bottas to qualify ahead of Perez @ 1.675 (1 unit) (Pinnacle)
Bottas is the better qualifier of the two, he’s traditionally decent in Australia unlike Perez, and he had the better start in practice.
Lindblad to qualify ahead of Lawson @ 1.869 (2 units) (Pinnacle)
The only 2 unit bet for the day. Lindblad is a much better talent than Lawson and he looked really good in both practice sessions.
Russell to qualify ahead of Antonelli @ 1.413 (1 unit) (Pinnacle)
This matchup will be closer this year, but Russell should still be a level ahead of Antonelli. In the beginning of the season, he should have a 75-80% chance of beating his teammate so this is a value bet.
Piastri to qualify ahead of Norris @ 1.751 (1 unit) (Pinnacle)
Piastri could be the better McLaren driver this year if he continues his trajectory. However, this bet is more based on the fact that Norris had some issues in practice that limited his preparation. At the same time, Piastri looked really good.
Leclerc to qualify ahead of Hamilton @ 1.411 (1 unit) (Pinnacle)
Leclerc dominated this matchup last year and that could easily continue. 1.411 seems high considering he beat Hamilton at a 79% rate last season. Only potential problem is that Hamilton is quite good at this track, but so is Leclerc.
Gasly to qualify ahead of Colapinto @ 1.36 (1 unit) (Bet365)
Colapinto could improve this year, but Gasly is just an excellent qualifier and when the Frenchman is motivated, he has a clear edge on Colapinto. It’s also Colapinto’s first time racing this track in F1.
Hülkenberg to qualify ahead of Bortoleto @ 1.89 (1 unit) (SBO)
This is going to be a very close matchup throughout the year, with Bortoleto perhaps being the favourite. But this is a Hülkenberg track and in the first round he likely has a 55% chance of beating his teammate. Just enough for some value here.
Race
Lindblad to beat Lawson @ 2.13 (1 unit) (Pinnacle)
We lost this matchup yesterday. However, Lindblad proved to be faster than Lawson through most laps, and his Q2 lap was faster than Lawson’s Q3.
Lindblad’s superior pace should show over a race distance. Keep in mind that Racing Bulls are an operationally bad team and that one of the drivers will probably face some sort of issue. Plus, both drivers are error prone. That essentially makes this a 50-50 matchup.
Norris to beat Hamilton @ 2.20 (1 unit) (Bet365)
Norris didn’t have the ideal preparation for Melbourne, but he put together some okay laps in qualifying and was faster than Hamilton in Q2 and Q3, although Lewis clearly had some car issues. The Ferrari should have insane acceleration, so Hamilton could pass Norris at the start, but the Ferrari also seems more prone to technical failures. Norris is the better driver, with Hamilton no longer at his peak, and that counts for something too.
Bottas to beat Perez @ 2.25 (0.5 unit) (Bet365)
Both drive for a brand new team so anything can happen. Cadillac will likely face issues with at least one of their cars. Plus, things are generally more random at the back of the field. Perez is good at street tracks but Melbourne barely qualifies. He did seem more motivated in qualifying, though. So a slight edge to Perez, but this matchup is near even so we’ll take the higher odds with Bottas and hope for the best.
Ocon to beat Bearman @ 2.20 (0.5 unit) (Bet365)
This should be another near 50-50 matchup. Ocon and Bearman are extremely close in level. Last year, Ocon was slightly faster than Bearman in Melbourne. This time, Bearman starts a grid slot ahead, which moves a few percentages to his favour. But at odds 2.20 we find slight value in the Frenchman.
Colapinto to beat Gasly @ 4.33 (0.5 unit) (Bet365)
No doubt that Gasly is the fastest driver, but odds 4.33 is a tad too generous for Colapinto who is projected to beat his teammate in around ~30% of the races this year. Colapinto starts two slots behind and could quite keep up with Gasly in qualifying, so at Melbourne the estimation drops to 25%. But that still gives us some value at odds 4.33 although it’s a risky bet.
