F1 is finally back after a 5-week break! Sadly, we return to a sprint weekend at a street circuit, but it will still be nice to see some racing again. Here’s our preview and betting picks for the weekend.
Preview
We could see some changes in the order at Miami. F1 has made changes to the regulations, reducing the harvest processes of the engine so that drivers can drive more flat out – especially in qualifying, where we should now see less coasting. The permitted recharge per lap is reduced from 8MJ to 7MJ (with some tracks, in the future, being even lower).
For the race, cars will be able to deploy 350kW in acceleration and straights, though only 250 kW in other zones. This should, in theory, prevent accidents like the Bearman crash we saw at Suzuka. Changes to the race-start procedure could potentially mean that teams will be more equal getting off the line and that the quick starting Ferraris might lose a bit of their edge.
Another interesting thing is that the teams have had a long time to prepare for Miami. Everyone is bringing updates, and some (Cadillac, Racing Bulls) will have unique liveries. Ferrari seem to be the team bringing the most profound upgrades.
In terms of weather, it all looks high unpredictable. Friday and Saturday should be hot and dry, while thunderstorms are predicted for Sunday. Hopefully it won’t interrupt proceedings. It would be great to see some light showers, though, but let’s wait and see how it all turns out.
Miami is – like last year – a sprint weekend. That means only one practice session, then sprint qualifying later on Friday, followed by the sprint race and qualifying on Saturday, and then the classic Sunday race.
This should cause some more variance and perhaps a few surprises. Having only one practice session could make it difficult for the drivers to find a good setup, especially considering that all teams are bringing updates. Results should have more variance this weekend so be aware of that if you’re betting!
Last year in Miami, Kimi Antonelli had an incredible Friday performance and took the sprint pole. He should probably be considered the favourite this time around due to the dominant car he’s driving – and the fact that George Russell has been very underwhelming in his previous outings at this track.
Max Verstappen is one of the top performers at Miami. But the Red Bull car is significantly lacking in performance. It’s possible that they have improved, but I believe McLaren and Ferrari are the ones to keep an eye on. If McLaren understand the Mercedes engine better, they could eventually catch up, and I believe we’ll see a step in that direction this time. Lando Norris took a lucky first win in Miami in 2024, and Oscar Piastri was the race winner last year.
Bets
Bets for the weekend will be posted here! Check back for updates a few hours before each session. Betting suggestions will also be posted on X @ racevaluecom – so give it a follow.
So far we have the following plays:
Race
Apologies for not having any suggestions on the sprint and qualifying sessions. Here are some race picks.
Norris to beat Russell @ 1.925 (1 unit) (Pinnacle)
Norris is the better driver in the wet. He was incredible in sprint qualifying and in the sprint race, then somehow had a mediocre qualifying, possibly because McLaren set the car up for the race. Fair odds 1.76.
Norris to beat Leclerc @ 2.10 (1 unit) (Bet365)
Adding this one. It’s an okay price, considering that Norris should have the edge if it rains. If it stays dry, which seems unlikely, the matchup is close to 50-50. Fair odds 1.92.
Sainz to beat Albon @ 1.709 (1 unit) (Pinnacle)
Although Albon had better pace than Sainz in the sprint race, I like the Spaniard here. He starts a few slots ahead, is probably more consistent on a wet track, and in sprint weekends we often see a different story in the real race. Pinnacle stands out with better odds than the rest. Fair odds 1.62.
Perez to beat Bottas @ 1.85 (1 unit) (Bwin)
Cadillac is a bit of a lottery, and Bottas has the better starting position, but between these two, I definitely prefer Perez on a street circuit, and even more so if it’s wet. Perez should be able to sneak past his teammate at some point. Fair odds 1.78.
Bearman to beat Hulkenberg @ 2.00 (1 unit) (Pinnacle)
Hülkenberg starts two positions ahead, but the Audi has been a slow starter on most occasions. This is also a bet on consistency: I simply trust Haas a bit more to have a clean and stable race, and Bearman – despite this being a weaker track for him – is a higher upside driver. Fair odds 1.92.
Antonelli to win the race @ 2.73 (0.5 unit) (Betfair)
What Antonelli does best is pulling away in clean air. We’ve seen this ever since his karting days. He makes mistakes in traffic, but he is very good when in control. Rain and safety cars could complicate things, but Mercedes have the best strategies, so Antonelli is in play in most scenarios. Half unit only due to some uncertainties. Fair odds 2.50.
Sprint qualifying
Perez to beat Bottas @ 1.85 (1 unit) (Bwin)
Perez is solid at this track and generally does well at street circuits. Bottas struggled against Zhou (!) in his last outing in Miami. This year, Perez also seems more motivated than Bottas. Although the Finn is generally the better qualifier, I believe Checo has an advantage on this occasion. Fair odds 1.76.
Ocon to beat Bearman @ 2.60 (0.5 unit) (Bwin)
Ocon shouldn’t be paying this much in what should be a close matchup. Bearman struggled massively in Miami last year while Ocon has a decent record here. Note that sprint qualifying favours the instinctively better driver, and that’s Bearman, who is 5-2 against the Frenchman in such sessions – hence why we stay cautious and place 0.5 unit only. Bwin offers the highest price, but other bookies hold value too. Fair odds 2.32.
Russell to beat Antonelli @ 2.37 (1.5 units) (Bet365)
I like Antonelli on this track, but they both had car issues in FP1, so neither performance was indicative. Russell is always a strong qualifier, and in a session with limited preparation, he shouldn’t be an underdog to Antonelli. Fair odds 2.00.
FP1
Norris to beat Piastri @ 2.05 (2 units) (Stake)
Norris takes the first practice session a bit more seriously than Piastri who often holds back. This is also a good track for Norris. Fair odds 1.75.
Hülkenberg to beat Bortoleto @ 1.92 (2 units) (Stake)
Same story here. Hülkenberg is usually focused during the first practice session as the team relies on him to do setup work. Especially in sprint weekends where he’s 6-1 against Bortoleto in FP1. Fair odds 1.67.
