Suzuka is an amazing and difficult track where mistakes are guaranteed. However, overtaking is traditionally difficult, so the races often end up fairly boring. Perhaps with some bets it will be more interesting.
Preview
Every time the F1 circus goes to Japan, it is often said that Suzuka is a ‘drivers circuit’. A track where the driver makes a bigger difference than usual. However, when we look at previous results, it is usually the best car that wins. An obvious exception was last year where Max Verstappen beat the McLarens. The thing to note is that it’s a difficult track where a mistake is much more costly than elsewhere.
This time around, the cars are very different. Re-charging the batteries could be awkward in certain parts of this track, because there aren’t that many heavy breaking zones, but rules have been adjusted (a drop from 9MJ to 8MJ) and with the new cars, we may still see more action than usual.
The quick-starting Ferraris could make life difficult for at least one of the Mercedes drivers, and we know that Verstappen can do something special here if everything goes right.
Kimi Antonelli took his first pole and win at the last round in China. It was mainly due to a problem in qualifying for George Russell, and too much passiveness from Russell in the race – but credit where credit is due. Antonelli should have a solid chance at performing well at Suzuka too, as he had a decent race last year when he was still very inexperienced.
In the midfield, anything can happen, but the Alpines should have a solid chance at scoring some more points. They were fast in China and this track should suit the car somewhat well. Another inspired performance by Oliver Bearman is also in the cards. He scored a point for Haas at Suzuka last year.
Temperatures should be fairly cool all weekend with a moderate chance of rain on Saturday – but probably not on race day.
Finally, it’s important for us to enjoy this GP weekend as the following rounds in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia have been cancelled. The next race won’t be until early May!
Bets for the weekend
All picks will be posted here (as well as on Bettin.gs, Reddit and X).
Race
Piastri to beat Hamilton @ 2.10 (1.5 unit) (Bet365)
Piastri was about four tenths quicker than Hamilton in qualifying and starts three places ahead. The Ferrari starts better, but it’s still a lot of ground to make up, and Piastri is one of the best overtakers should he get behind Hamilton at any point. The main risk here is the McLaren reliability. Fair odds 1.88.
Verstappen to beat Gasly @ 2.20 (1.5 unit) (Bet365)
Verstappen had a pretty bad qualifying but he’s actually getting into underrated territory right now. Even though he isn’t happy with the car, he showed great race pace last GP if you study his laps, and Gasly tends to drop back in races. It’s definitely possible that Verstappen could salvage some points and pass Gasly along the way. Fair odds 2.00.
Hülkenberg to beat Ocon @ 1.95 (0.5 unit) (SBO)
Ocon is not having a great start to the season. Hülkenberg has traditionally been strong at Suzuka, although mainly early in his career. I trust him more in this matchup, and when it all comes down to it, the Audi also seems like the quicker car. But it’s a small bet since reliability could easily play a role. Fair odds 1.85.
Bottas to beat Perez @ 2.07 (0.5 unit) (Pinnacle)
This should be a near 50-50 matchup in most races, regardless of who starts ahead. Bottas has the better record at Suzuka, but surprisingly lost to Perez in qualifying yesterday. Again, the race is a coinflip between the two, so we find a bit of value here. Fair odds 2.00.
Albon to beat Sainz @ 2.37 (1 unit) (Pinnacle)
Another very close matchup. Sainz beat Albon yesterday thanks to a great final Q1 lap, but there’s not much between the two. Albon was faster for most of practice and in theory, his driving style should be better at this track. So I still like him for a small bet in the race. Anything can happen in the midfield and both drivers will have to be a bit aggressive at the start. Fair odds 2.27.
Qualifying
Antonelli to get pole @ 3.80 (1 unit) (Betfair, after commission)
I re-watched the last few races at Suzuka and this is a fairly weak track for Russell. That gives Antonelli a better-than-usual chance of getting pole. Last year Russell was just two tenths faster than Antonelli, and that was one of Kimi’s earliest races. He’s already much better and should have high confidence after his successful weekend in China. Betfair has 3.95, Pinnacle 3.76, and Polymarket 3.71. Fair odds 3.33.
Antonelli to outqualify Russell @ 3.25 (1 unit) (Bet365)
Antonelli was faster than Russell in FP2 and really shouldn’t be paying this much to simply beat his teammate who is fairly weak here. So I’m adding a unit on the matchup here since Bet365 sticks out with clear value. Fair odds 2.77.
Bottas to outqualify Perez @ 1.89 (2 units) (SBO)
Bottas is fairly strong at Suzuka, was ahead of Pérez in FP2, and is generally the better qualifier of the two. This is a very solid bet that I’ll happily place 2% of my bankroll on. Fair odds 1.67.
Albon to outqualify Sainz @ 2.03 (1 unit) (SBO)
This track suits Albon well. Generally, Sainz is the better qualifier, but it isn’t always the case, and this is one of those places where Albon can beat him. Albon looked fairly good in practice and he should be a slight favourite here. Fair odds 1.92.
Hamilton to outqualify Leclerc @ 2.62 (1 unit) (Bet365)
I always hate going against Leclerc in qualifying, considering how good he is at this discipline, but like the last GP in China, this is one of the tracks where he is ‘very good’ but not incredible. Hamilton, meanwhile, has done well at Suzuka in the past, particularly in qualifying, and it seems like the new car suits him very well. Fair odds 2.32.
Lindblad to outqualify Lawson @ 3.10 (0.5 unit) (Pinnacle)
Lindblad didn’t drive in FP2 so his preparation isn’t the best. It’s also a new track for him, but so was Australia, and he was great there. Lawson is overrated at the moment and the rookie Lindblad should have a chance at beating him. I’m keeping the stake down, and I recommend caution here due to Lindblad’s lack of preparation, but I like the bet. Fair odds 2.85.
