It feels strange that the Monaco Grand Prix takes place in June this year – a bit later than usual. It’s also the first European race of the year!
We are likely going to see the most intense qualifying session of the year, possibly followed up by a really boring race. So that’s business as usual, but it will be interesting to see how the new cars look on the track.
FIA changes ahead of the race
There are rules changes ahead of almost every race and this one is no exception. The Monaco GP will have no active aero on the cars, which essentially means that the front and rear wing on the cars won’t move.
Then there is a new engine mapping called Rev1 Mode: It will limit the energy in certain parts of the track.
And finally, after June 1st, the engine compression ratio will be enforced. This means that Mercedes (and all their customers) cannot run the engine at 1:18 at high temperatures but must stick to 1:16 at all times as the rules describe.
Weekend preview
Monaco is the shortest and slowest circuit of the year. Yet, it could be the most ‘real’ GP so far this year. We’ve seen what a big influence the battery has had. But in Monaco, the power means much less. Drivers won’t have to lift and coast as much; batteries will easily recharge through the many breaking zones, and we could see some more ‘natural’ racing.
Of course, overtaking is extremely difficult at Monaco, so there might not be much racing for positions. The overtake mode should be stronger here though, particularly due to the rules changes and lack of active aero, and the cars are smaller – so perhaps we will see an overtake or two. Last year there was just one overtake.
Everyone is predicting that Ferrari have a good shot at challenging Mercedes this weekend due to the nature of their car. It is a very balanced car that performs well in corners and probably has the best mechanical grip. Ferrari will be unable to flex its wings, and engine power is still lacking – but after the latest upgrade, they say they are just 4% slower than Mercedes. It is possible that Ferrari can win it here, especially if Charles Leclerc does one of his outstanding qualifying laps. We’ve also seen the Ferrari starting better than the Mercedes, so even if the prancing horses line up behind the silver arrows, one of them may be able to overtake them down to turn one.
McLaren could also be a challenger as they have a strong car in slow corners. We saw that Piastri had a great race in Japan, and the McLaren also performed very well in the twistier parts of the Miami circuit. Norris looked like an early contender for the win in Canada, but a bad strategy call ruined his race. Perhaps this time they’ll finally have a real shot at victory.
Down in the midfield, it will be interesting to see how things play out. Last year, Racing Bulls had a really strong performance, getting both cars into the top 10. Williams also scored points this year, but might struggle with an overweight car this time around. Over at Haas, Ocon is a specialist at this track and hopes to finally beat Bearman on merit.
The qualifying session is always the best part of Monaco. The race is usually a parade, and that tradition might repeat itself this year, but we’ve seen cars retire at a higher rate than usual, and if there is any safety car, it could really shake things up strategically.
Betting
Two weeks ago in Canada, we didn’t have time to analyse the betting markets. This will certainly change this weekend in Monaco – you can check in here to see our betting picks ahead of each session. Be sure to follow RaceValue on X to get notified as soon as we post!
Qualifying bets
Leclerc to get pole position @ 1.96 (2 units) (Polymarket)
Ferrari look quicker than Mercedes this weekend. Leclerc is an incredible qualifier and possibly the best driver on this track, so I like his chances of taking pole. (Fair odds 1.80)
Sainz to beat Albon @ 1.75 (2 units) (Bwin)
Sainz is having a really good season and has been better than Albon this year. I’m betting on that to continue, as Monaco is a good track for Sainz, and he was about a tenth quicker than Albon in FP2. (Fair odds 1.54)
Lindblad to beat Lawson @ 1.89 (1.5 unit) (SBO)
Lindblad did well in Monaco in F2 and was quicker than Lawson in practice today. He is a naturally more gifted driver and should be the favourite here. (Fair odds 1.67)
Piastri to beat Norris @ 2.29 (1.5 unit) (SBO)
Norris won last year, but both McLaren drivers are strong here. This is a 50-50 matchup and considering that Norris had issues with the car in FP2, I don’t understand why he’s favoured. Piastri’s form should improve during the European season which begins here. (Fair odds 2.00)
Russell to beat Antonelli @ 2.08 (1.5 unit) (SBO)
Monaco isn’t Russell’s best track, but he is still one of F1’s fastest qualifiers and super underrated at the moment. This is a close matchup but if Russell can avoid technical issues, I think he should come out ahead more often than not. Antonelli tried taking some aggressive lines in the practice sessions – this could pay off, he might end up having a super lap in quali, but there’s also the risk of hitting the wall. (Fair odds 1.85)
Colapinto to beat Gasly @ 4.00 (1 unit) (Bet365)
22 cars in Monaco could cause some chaos in Q1, so I like the idea of picking some underdogs. Colapinto finally looks settled in with great performances in the last two rounds. Odds 4.00 is definitely too high. (Fair odds 3.33)
Bortoleto to beat Hülkenberg @ 2.60 (1 unit) (Bwin)
Bortoleto’s driving style should be well suited for Monaco. Hulk was faster in practice, yet as always, this is a close battle where it could really go either way: One of the Audis could easily get stuck in traffic at some point, increasing the randomness of this matchup. (Fair odds 2.22)
Hadjar to beat Verstappen @ 11.00 (0.5 unit) (Bet365)
This is a longshot obviously. But with some good luck, Hadjar could potentially outqualify Verstappen, so odds 11 at Bet365 is a great price. Hadjar was quick in Monaco last year. He crashed in FP1 but hopefully it won’t cause any later issues, as the team has already fixed the car. (Fair odds 8.33)
