The second race of the year takes place in China. A very solid racetrack that should give us some nice betting opportunities. Sadly, this is a sprint weekend, so the timing of bets could be off and with fewer practice sessions, everything is just a bit more unclear.
Preview
Mercedes dominated qualifying in Australia but faced a battle with the Ferraris in the opening laps. Those two teams seem to be ahead at this point, but Max Verstappen is still a joker since we didn’t get to see his qualifying pace. The Red Bull could, in theory, still be the second-fastest car.
Shanghai is a very different track than Melbourne. Much more spacious and with more variety in corners. It also has a massive straight. It is unclear how the new engines will perform at this track, but there should be much better battery recharge opportunities this time around.
Bets for the weekend
All picks will be posted here (as well as on Bettin.gs, Reddit and X).
Race
Good results for the sprint and qualifying. However, I think the market is very sharp when looking at the race matchups. Still, here are some picks.
Russell > Antonelli @ 1.57 (1u) Bet365
Russell was the fastest of the two in every session except for Q3 where he had an unusual issue. Under normal circumstances, he should be able to pass Antonelli quickly and take the win. The risk is that he could have a technical issue again, but let’s just hope his engineers have solved it. Fair odds 1.49.
Lindblad > Lawson @ 2.21 (1u) SBO
As mentioned before, I firmly believe Lindblad is going to beat Lawson more often than not this season. Lindblad didn’t have an optimal start to this weekend, and he’s obviously inexperienced, but there’s still plenty of hope – and the over-aggressive Lawson usually commits at least one mistake per race, so this has to be a value bet. Fair odds 1.96.
Norris > Verstappen @ 1.40 (1u) Bet365
Verstappen is struggling this weekend. He hasn’t found a proper setup and it seems like the car simply isn’t good at this track. Norris should stay ahead under normal circumstances. You never know in F1, there could be a crazy start or a late safety car shaking things up, but this matchup looks good for Norris as he has a 0.3-0.4s advantage per lap here. Essentially you could also bet Piastri to finish in front of Verstappen, just take the McLaren driver that pays more. In this case, Bet365 offers 1.40 for Norris to win the matchup. Fair odds 1.35.
Bearman > Gasly @ 2.05 (1u) SBO
Bearman still looks extremely promising – particularly good at starts and defensive driving. Gasly, meanwhile, tends to drop back in races, mainly because he excels in qualifying. The main concern here is that the Alpine car could be a bit faster than the Haas, but I do believe Haas will be stronger over a full race distance than in qualifying, so Bearman is a slight favourite over Gasly imo. Fair odds 1.96.
Qualifying
The qualifying could be interesting. Much depends on whether everyone makes it out of the sprint race alright – note that situations and odds can change a lot in the final hours.
Bottas > Perez @ 1.93 (1.5 unit) (SBO)
I truly believe Bottas will beat Perez more often than not in qualifying sessions. Possibly at a 60% rate. Perez also had some technical issues on Friday. Fair odds 1.67.
Lindblad > Lawson @ 2.20 (1 unit) (SBO)
Lawson had the upper hand in the sprint qualifying, but mainly because he got a slipstream. I will continue backing Lindblad as much as possible in this matchup since he looks like a far better talent. Fair odds 2.00.
Hamilton > Leclerc @ 2.00 (1 unit) (Bet365)
It always makes me nervous going against Leclerc on Saturdays. But this is perhaps Hamilton’s strongest track, he looks much more comfortable with the new car, and it is one of the few tracks where Leclerc typically underperforms. Fair odds 1.92.
Piastri > Norris @ 2.05 (0.5 unit) (SBO)
Norris had a great lap in sprint qualifying, but this is going to be an extremely close matchup the entire year. Piastri has pretty much reached Norris’ level. I have this matchup as 50-50 for the real qualifying. Fair odds 2.00.
Sainz > Albon @ 1.74 (0.5 unit) (Pinnacle)
While backing Albon in the sprint race, I like Sainz in the actual qualifying where he tends to have the edge over his teammate. Since joining Williams, Sainz began focusing more on qualifying setups. But the market knows it, so the edge is fairly small, hence a half unit bet. If you can find a better odds somewhere, it could be worth a higher stake. Fair odds 1.72.
Sprint race
Some mixed results in the sprint qualifying bets – let’s try to find some good spots for the sprint race.
Russell to win the sprint @ 1.484 (1 unit) (Betfair, after commission)
The Mercedes cars look totally dominant so Russell deserves to be a big favourite here. The biggest threats are Antonelli, who still makes far more mistakes than Russell, and Hamilton who could have a rocket start. But Russell has a very good chance here. Fair odds 1.42.
Albon to beat Sainz @ 2.28 (0.5 unit) (SBO)
At the back end of the field, the drivers likely won’t push too much. Whoever gets the best start will likely stay ahead. Sainz starts one position ahead but that could easily change. It’s a 55-45 matchup so we get some value on Albon. Fair odds 2.22.
Piastri to beat Verstappen @ 1.40 (0.5 unit) (Bet365)
The McLarens look faster this weekend, while Verstappen has struggled with his car. With limited strategy involved in the sprint, and Piastri several grid slots ahead, only a major mistake or failure would put him behind Max. Bet365 sticks out a bit compared to the Asian books, but the value is tiny, so we just place a half unit. Fair odds 1.37.
Sprint qualifying
We start early this time with sprint qualifying picks for the Friday session. I’d like to point out that these bets are placed even before practice, so there’s a lot of uncertainty! Follow at your own risk.
Russell to outqualify Antonelli for the sprint @ 1.41 (SBO) (2 units)
A surprise could always happen, but Russell still has a big edge over Antonelli, especially on flying laps.
Lindblad to outqualify Lawson for the sprint @ 1.85 (SBO) (1.5 units)
It’s already clear that Lindblad is faster than Lawson. Plus, Lawson struggled massively in China last year.
Bottas to outqualify Perez for the sprint @ 1.87 (SBO) (1 unit)
Bottas lost to Perez in qualifying last week, but overall, the Finn should win this matchup more often than not. His main strength is qualifying consistency. Something to note is that neither of the two will push the car too much for a sprint where they’ll likely be last.
Bortoleto to outqualify Hülkenberg for the sprint @ 1.884 (Pinnacle) (1 unit)
I was surprised by Bortoleto’s pace in Australia. He has definitely improved, and he was already at Hülkenberg’s level in qualifying last year, so it’s looking good for the Brazilian – plus he did okay on this track last year.
Sainz to outqualify Albon for the sprint @ 1.95 (SBO) (0.5 unit)
Sainz is faster than Albon in terms of single lap pace. They have completely different driving styles though, and it’s still not clear who is better suited for the new Williams, so there is some uncertainty – but this looks like a shot worth taking.
Ocon to outqualify Bearman for the sprint @ 2.25 (Bet365) (0.5 unit)
I like Bearman a lot, but Ocon always stays close to his teammates. He had surprisingly good pace in China last year and now we get him at a competitive price following a disappointing round in Australia. Fair price is approx. 2.17, so we’ll take 2.25 for a small bet.
Verstappen to outqualify Leclerc for the sprint @ 2.05 (SBO) (0.5 unit)
Ferrari excelled in acceleration and early race pace in Australia. Qualifying was a different story where Verstappen’s teammate Hadjar qualified ahead of the two Ferraris. This is a very different track, but with more battery recharge possibilities, the RBPT engine might prove even stronger and Verstappen has a better track record than Leclerc in Shanghai. But since it’s still early in the season, and Red Bull have reliability issues, we keep the unit count down to a minimum.
