The season is about to start and we already know quite a lot about the new cars after watching the first public winter test.
That also means we can get some bets ready! Seasonal picks of course. We had a few good ones last year, like McLaren to win the WCC, and likewise there are some nice spots for this season.
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Piastri to outscore Norris @ 2.50 (3 units) (Bet365)
This should be a 50-50 matchup in 2026 – so I don’t understand why Norris is favoured by this much. Piastri needs to sort out his late-season inconsistency issues to beat Norris, and I believe he will. In any case, should Piastri lead Norris by midseason, or at any other point, the market will likely overreact and we can trade out of this bet with a solid plus.
Piastri WDC @ 15.00 (0.5 unit) (Bet365)
Mercedes, Ferrari and McLaren seem to be ahead of the rest. This will likely result in a 5-way battle between Russell, Leclerc, Norris, Piastri and Verstappen – who can always compete despite not having the fastest car – where Russell is a slight favourite.
But the value is on Piastri, who took a major step up in 2025, and he could easily challenge for the title yet again. Odds 15 for him to win it is simply too high considering that he might be the third best driver on the grid this year, in the second-fastest car.
McLaren WCC @ 4.54 (1 unit) (Polymarket)
Everyone believes Mercedes are the top team, but McLaren should be fairly close, unless Mercedes really held back in winter testing. We know McLaren can develop well over the year. They also have two top drivers, unlike the other teams that have a clear number one. Car performance is key, and there is some uncertainty in that area, but odds 4.54 seems like solid value, albeit with some risk.
McLaren to outscore Ferrari @ 1.83 (1 unit) (Bet365)
At this point it’s hard to tell which is the better team among these two. I would personally trust McLaren over the entire year.
Leclerc to outscore Hamilton @ 1.33 (3 units) (Bet365)
Leclerc was miles ahead of Hamilton in 2025 and there’s no reason to think Hamilton can suddenly catch up. Leclerc probably has an ~85% chance of winning this matchup so odds 1.33 is generous.
Lindblad to outscore Lawson @ 2.69 (3 units) (SBO)
Lindblad is a much better talent than Lawson. The latter has experience on his side, although not by much, and Lindblad is still very young. But these are brand new cars for both drivers. The margin will probably be similar, or only slightly smaller, than it was last year between Hadjar and Lawson. Currently, Lawson ranks last in my driver rankings, so any bet going against him looks good. The new cars should also favour drivers that are good at simply managing things, and Lawson tends to overdrive the car.
Bortoleto to outscore Hülkenberg @ 2.40 (2 units) (SBO)
Like with Piastri and Norris, this is essentially a 50-50 matchup, if not slightly in Bortoleto’s favour. They were pretty close in terms of H2H results last year. Bortoleto should improve slightly, as drivers tend to do that in their second seasons, while Hülkenberg should decline due to age. Additionally, Audi is projected to be a backmarker, at least to begin with, so any lucky high-variance result could bring either driver ahead of the other on points. That means value on Bortoleto as the underdog here. The new car characteristics should also suit his driving style very well.
Perez to finish ahead of Bottas @ 1.91 (2 units) (SBO)
Bottas struggled during his 3 years driving for Sauber. Aside from the first few races of 2022, he barely scored any points. His skill-set simply doesn’t suit a lower ranked team. The Finn will likely beat Perez in H2H stats, but Perez has insane upside on street tracks and he is much better at advancing in races due to his tyre management skills.
This could be similar to the 2014-16 years against Hülkenberg, where Perez wasn’t outright faster, but he scored better results. This time with an even larger edge as Bottas is worse than Hülkenberg. Perez is great at simply managing the car over the course of a race, while Bottas struggles with consistency. However, there is a lot of variance involved here, as one single good race could secure either driver the better position in the championship. But there’s a solid chance that one good race will be a classic Perez underdog performance.
Ocon to outscore Bearman @ 2.50 (1 unit) (Bet365)
Bearman got all the attention last year, but it was actually a close call between the two Haas drivers. Bearman is expected to improve in his second year, and he probably will, but in F2 he surprisingly declined in his second season. Some analytics point toward an underperformance by Ocon in 2025, so perhaps he will bounce back. There are so many uncertainties in the Haas duel that we simply go with the higher odds!
