The Formula One field is facing major rule changes ahead of 2026. These changes could shake up the rankings, especially as some teams are changing engine providers.
Let’s try to predict the best and worst F1 teams in 2026.
Here are our performance ranking predictions:
Championship contenders
1. Mercedes
2. Red Bull (possibly)
According to the rumours, Mercedes are way ahead in engine development for 2026. This obviously benefits all the teams running Mercedes engines. But only two of them have proven the ability to design a race-winning car.
The superiority of Mercedes was confirmed in the early winter testing and the works team seems to have a clear advantage.
Red Bull are behind on car performance, but with Verstappen behind the wheel of the lead car, it’s not out of the question that they can compete for the title. The RBPT-Ford engine is better than expected, as proven by the Racing Bulls team having strong performance as well.
Likely race winners
3. Ferrari
4. McLaren
Ferrari usually produce a car capable of winning some races but not quite leading the pack. That will probably happen again. It does seem like they are doing better than usual. Perhaps because they began focusing fully on the current car as early as April 2025.
The Scuderia responded well to the most recent rules shake-up in 2022 so they could also come out of this as a front-runner. Their new car has some interesting features, mainly the rear wing. It also seems to accelerate quickly off the line.
McLaren seem to lack behind a bit. They still don’t have all the information on how to extract maximum performance out of the new Mercedes engine. In terms of chassis, aero and consistency, McLaren still look like a top team. So there is a chance they could improve throughout the year if they are allowed to access better engine features.
The pack
5. Racing Bulls
6. Audi
7. Haas
8. Alpine
9. Williams
Further behind, we find the cars that are probably unable to win, but capable of scoring points from time to time. The performance level among these teams will be highly track-dependent.
Racing Bulls produced a very strong (and underrated) 2025 car. How else could Hadjar and Lawson score so many points?
They will probably have a solid chassis for 2026, and once again a car that is simple to drive. The engine is also better than expected Racing Bulls could be ranked as high as fifth in terms of performance. Unfortunately, the team isn’t great operationally, so despite having the fifth best car, they may end up lower in the standings.
Audi were previously ranked lower, but after the most recent testing performance, it looks like they have a decent car. They prepared their engine for years so it’s probably not as bad as people think.
Haas might do as usual: Start the year fairly well, compete for points at the very front of the midfield, only to drop back as the year progresses. The good news is that they have such a promising talent in Oliver Bearman, already the best ever driver to have driven for Haas.
Over at Alpine, they have put all their eggs in the 2026 basket. They abandoned the 2025 car early, so they could be a positive surprise this season. Shifting to Mercedes engines will help too, but their potential is capped – mainly due to having mediocre drivers. Like McLaren, they still haven’t been allowed to access some of the engine features.
Williams may face a ceiling, as they lack top designers and engineers. The competition will be very strong in 2026 with improved cars by the midfield competitors. I rank Williams 9th, but who knows, they could surprise later on. Even with a worse car than its closest competitors, they may score more points throughout the year thanks to their excellent driver lineup. Sainz and Albon could both have strong individual performances from time to time.
Ultimately, it’s also important to note that the performance among the midfield teams could change drastically from race to race, depending on how well suited each car is to the circuit.
Backmarkers
10. Aston Martin
11. Cadillac
Aston Martin is the real joker for 2026 with a car designed by Adrian Newey. Based on early photos of the car, Newey has an extremely inventive design concept.
However, I don’t expect them to lead the midfield immediately.
The Honda engine has not looked great in testing, to put it mildly. But things could improve throughout the year. It would not be a surprise if Aston Martin held back more than anyone in testing. Sadly, they looked awful in Australia too. But perhaps they can improve throughout the year.
Cadillac is an easier fade as the entire team is a brand new entry. With a Ferrari engine, they get no advantage over the teams using Mercedes engines – which is more than a third of the field this year. And their driver lineup leaves things to be desired. Two old second-drivers who’ve both been away for a year – and they weren’t even that fast to begin with.
Driver rankings and lineups
I have other content pieces covering these. My current driver rankings provide a nice overview and it gets updated weekly. If you’re interested in more future predictions, check the 2027 and 2028 Silly Season articles where future grids are predicted!
