It’s been two weeks since the last race and now it’s finally time for Formula One again. This time in Japan, one of the best locations on the calendar.
Japanese GP news and buildup
The big news ahead of the Japanese Grand Prix is that Red Bull swapped Liam Lawson for Yuki Tsunoda.
Tsunoda finally gets his promotion, and even better, with a debut at his home race. The question is whether the Red Bull is actually a better car for Tsunoda. Both Perez and Lawson have proven it very difficult to drive, so even with Tsunoda’s talent, it could be a challenge. The good thing is that Red Bull is operationally much better than Racing Bulls. The latter team often excels in qualifying but disappoints in races due to bad setups, horrible strategies and lack of attention to its drivers.
With a two-week break, it’s possible that some teams have improved their cars. Five teams are bringing in upgrades, including Red Bull, Haas and Sauber, who seem to bring the most critical upgrades for performance.
The track
Suzuka is one of the calendar’s most difficult tracks. However, car performance is still essential. While the media constantly say it’s a “driver’s track”, it’s usually the top car that wins. Red Bull won all races from 2022 to 2024. Mercedes won all races from 2014 to 2019. Red Bull won 4 of 5 between 2009 and 2013. And Ferrari won all the Suzuka races during its dominant period between 2000 and 2004. Driver’s track? Not really, as the car performance is even more relevant than usual. But still, the ability of the driver is important.
It’s all about flow since many corners are extremely connected. If you get a bad exit off one corner, the next one is going to be even worse in terms of pace. This is particularly true for sector one, but also applies to the second.
Suzuka has plenty of fast and semi-fast corners. Overtakes are possible in some of them, and certainly on the main straight as well. The straight is the one and only DRS zone on this track. Last year, there were 85 overtakes at Suzuka.
The start will, as always, be crucial. The quick right-hand first turn is a challenge, particularly for the drivers in the back, so big changes could happen. The good news for the eventual leader is that if you lead into turn two, it’s very difficult to overtake for the rest of the first sector. Unlike in China where that’s more than possible.
Tyre wear is higher than usual and drivers could opt for a two-stop strategy here. It’s a track where chassis and aero mean more than engine power. Driver ability is also key, perhaps favoring those with a smooth style that can easily fall into flow.
Weather forecast
Temperatures should be relatively cool with a 20% chance of rain on Saturday and an 80% chance (!) on Sunday. So it’s likely going to be a wet weather race, in one way or another. We can hope they won’t cancel or postpone the race for too long.
TV times
This is a classic weekend with no sprint race. It simply has three practice sessions, qualifying and race.
The race starts at 2 pm local time, while qualifying starts at 3 pm local time.
You can convert into your timezone here.
Europeans will have the race early in the morning, while North and South Americans will have it late at night.
Favourites and underdogs
The McLaren drivers are the two big favourites. They’ve each one a race to open the season, and the McLaren appears to be between 3 and 5 tenths faster than the other teams when conditions are clear.
Last year, Red Bull dominated at Suzuka, but it was before their mid-season downfall and no one believes the Milton Keynes squad has the strongest car this time around.
With that said, Max Verstappen can definitely compete if it rains, and so can Lewis Hamilton. Those two are experts in the wet, although it appears that Lando Norris is now entering that categorisation too.
Previous results
Here are the last 10 winners of the Chinese Grand Prix:
2024: Max Verstappen (Red Bull)
2023: Max Verstappen (Red Bull)
2022: Max Verstappen (Red Bull)
2020-21: No race
2019: Valtteri Bottas (Mercedes)
2018: Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
2017: Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
2016: Nico Rosberg (Mercedes)
2015: Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
2014: Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
2013: Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull)
Drivers who usually thrive at Suzuka are:
- Max Verstappen
- Lewis Hamilton
- Carlos Sainz
- Nico Hülkenberg
- Yuki Tsunoda
- Alex Albon
Verstappen and Hamilton are multiple-time winners at Suzuka, so their proficiency cannot really be questioned.
The driving style of Sainz goes well with the track. He outperformed Norris in 2019 and Leclerc last year. He also had mediocre weekends at Suzuka in the past, and he still struggles with the Williams, but this could be the race where he finally checks in this year.
Nico Hülkenberg has beaten his teammates more often than not at Suzuka. The same applies to Yuki Tsunoda, who is 3-0 in qualifying against his teammates at his home race.
Alex Albon showed great promise as a rookie in 2019 where he basically equalled Verstappen at Suzuka. Since then, he’s had some bad luck, but rarely pace issues in Japan.
Oscar Piastri is not included in the list yet, but he did have a strong debut in 2023 at this track. Lando Norris also seems to improve in Japan over time, but there’s still no evidence of this being one of his particularly strong tracks.
Drivers who usually struggle at Suzuka are:
- Pierre Gasly
- Lance Stroll
Aside from a great result in 2019, Pierre Gasly has generally disappointed here. He has usually lost to his teammates at Suzuka.
Lance Stroll, likewise, does not have any noteworthy results in Japan and he is usually one of the worst drivers at this track.
We didn’t put George Russell on the list as someone who struggles, but at the same time, he has never shown anything great in Japan before. He did outqualify Hamilton last year, but Hamilton had a surprise down performance, and Russell seemed to have the edge at most tracks regardless. If Russell disappoints this year, he could be placed as a struggler for next year.
The rookies may struggle as Suzuka is a tricky track, but there’s also the chance that one or two of them surprises.
Betting on the 2025 Japanese GP
We will be sharing bets ahead of qualifying and the race. You’ll find those betting picks in a different article, as well as on our main betting page.
Our prediction
Pole position: Lando Norris (McLaren)
Race winner: Oscar Piastri (McLaren)
2nd: Lando Norris (McLaren)
3rd: Max Verstappen (Red Bull)