Time to share some bets for the upcoming Japanese GP! We will have bets for both qualifying and race.
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Qualifying
Norris gets pole position @ 1.88 (2 units) (Betfair, after commission)
If conditions are normal, the McLaren drivers will fight for the pole. Norris is slightly faster than Piastri and should be the favourite.
Ocon to beat Bearman @ 1.55 (2 units) (Bwin)
Ocon is the stronger of the two Haas drivers and this is a very difficult track for rookies.
Albon to beat Sainz @ 1.89 (2 units) (SBO)
Both drivers are strong here, but Sainz is still getting used to the Williams while Albon has been superb to start the year.
Alonso to beat Stroll @ 1.30 (2 units) (Unibet)
Alonso is far from his peak, but Suzuka is one of Stroll’s worst tracks and Alonso has beaten him 40-8 in qualifying sessions so far as teammates.
Hülkenberg to beat Bortoleto @ 1.39 (1 unit) (Cloudbet)
We still don’t know too much about Bortoleto. He seems good. But Hülkenberg’s forte is qualifying, and he’s usually strong at this track.
Lawson to beat Hadjar @ 2.60 (2 units) (Bwin)
This price is too good. Lawson has something to prove after being demoted and unlike Hadjar, he has experience at Suzuka as he drove there twice in Super Formula.
Antonelli to beat Tsunoda @ 2.17 (2 units) (SBO)
A tricky one, but Tsunoda could struggle in his first Red Bull appearance. Antonelli lacks experience, but at least he has a stable car at this circuit where flow means everything.
Doohan to beat Gasly @ 9.00 (0.5 unit) (Bwin)
Maybe a stupid bet since Doohan sucks and crashed in practice, but it seems too high. Japan is one of Gasly’s weakest tracks and with a 40% chance of rain, there could be an upset simply due to conditions. Doohan was allegedly working hard in the simulator up until this weekend.
Race
Verstappen to win @ 3.57 (1 unit) (Betfair)
Amazing qualifying lap by Max. Although McLaren is still the fastest car, odds 3.57 is great value for a Verstappen win, given the high chance of rain and the fact that Suzuka is usually won by one of the front-row starters. Verstappen is also the best defending driver in the sport and an excellent starter.
Verstappen to beat Piastri @ 1.85 (1 unit) (Bwin)
Also putting a unit on Verstappen to beat Piastri, given the conditions and his superior starting position. But it’s a close matchup.
Bortoleto to beat Hülkenberg @ 2.75 (1 unit) (Unibet)
Bortoleto seemed faster for most of qualifying, until Hülkenberg got a tow on his final lap. Perhaps Bortoleto will beat him in the race. He’s an underdog in this matchup so there could be value in the odds.
Lawson to beat Hadjar @ 3.95 (1 unit) (Unibet)
Hadjar was way superior in qualifying, but Racing Bulls is such an inept team at race strategies and consistency that their driver matchups are often a crapshoot. Hadjar could easily fall back even though he’s faster, and no RB driver should ever pay 3.95 over the other in a teammate matchup.
Albon to beat Hadjar @ 2.11 (1 unit) (SBO)
Albon is often better in the race than he is in qualifying. Hadjar is fast, but his team could screw up as usual.
Sainz to beat Lawson @ 1.78 (1 unit) (SBO)
Again, fading an RB driver in the race is often a good opportunity. Sainz was faster than Lawson before he got penalised and the Spaniard could easily advance a few positions in the race.
Ocon to beat Stroll @ 1.93 (2 units) (SBO)
Ocon disappointed in qualifying, but Stroll is just horrible at this track. Haas also brought upgrades for this weekend so you could also argue that Ocon now has the faster car of the two.