After an incredible opening to the season, the paddock now goes to China. Once again, McLaren is the big favourite, but anything can happen, so let’s try to look at the track and give some predictions.
Chinese GP news and buildup
Most of the news are centered around the events of the Australian Grand Prix that took place a few days ago.
Lando Norris has established himself as the man to beat this year. He’s now won back-to-back victories, as he also took the win at the final round in 2024.
The rookies mostly disappointed in Australia, with the exception of one. Kimi Antonelli advanced multiple places on his way to fourth. Meanwhile, Helmut Marko expressed disappointment in the attitude of Isack Hadjar following the French-Algerian’s crash on the warm-up lap.
Rumors continue about Max Verstappen’s future. Some say he may already join Mercedes in 2026.
The track
Shanghai is an interesting track as it features long curves with medium-to-slow speeds, two long straights, and some sharper corners as well. The opening corner is the track’s trademark and it usually brings surprises on the first lap, as drivers can win or lose a lot depending on the line they take.
The track was off the calendar during the Covid years but returned last year and is now set to stay.
It will be a 56-lap distance. There’s a lot of stress on the tyres, so some drivers may elect to do multiple pit stops. The track also changes quite rapidly in qualifying where it’s advantageous to be the last driver to set a time, if possible. Because the track is big and wide, it’s easy to give other drivers room in qualifying, although the cars sometimes bundle up in the final sector.
Overtaking is easy, although very DRS-based. If only two cars are fighting, the 1.4 km back straight is the ideal place to overtake. If multiple cars are following each other, it can create DRS trains. Previous races at Shanghai have been everything from ultra-exciting (2011, 2013, 2018) to boring (multiple occasions).
Weather forecast
This should be a dry weekend with moderately high temperatures. 24 and 25 degrees Celsius are forecasted for Saturday and Sunday, with a 10% risk of rain on Sunday afternoon.
In other words, classic race conditions where we probably get a good overview of the true performance of the cars.
TV times
The Chinese Grand Prix features a sprint race, so there are competitive sessions on both Friday (Practice, Sprint Qualifying), Saturday (Sprint, Regular Qualifying) and Sunday (Race).
The most important sessions, qualifying and race, both start at 3 pm local time. You can convert to your time here.
Favourites and underdogs
McLaren showed great performance in Australia and should have even more of a lead in China when conditions are clear.
Anything except a McLaren 1-2 would be a surprise at this point in the season. Last year, Lando Norris was quite a bit faster than Oscar Piastri in China, so he would have to be the main favourite of the two.
Lewis Hamilton is traditionally great in China, but he seems to struggle with his new car. He could be a surprise though, as he knows this track really well.
Many drivers are inexperienced at the Shanghai International Circuit. Aside from the fact that there are many rookies this year, the track was also missing from the calendar between 2020 and 2023. That means mistakes could happen, but it also means there could be some surprises, as we don’t truly know how a third of the grid will perform here. Sometimes, we get a surprise, like when Nico Rosberg won his first ever race at Shanghai in 2012.
Previous results
Here are the last 10 winners of the Chinese Grand Prix:
2024: Max Verstappen (Red Bull)
2020-23: No race
2019: Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
2018: Daniel Ricciardo (Red Bull)
2017: Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
2016: Nico Rosberg (Mercedes)
2015: Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
2014: Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
2013: Fernando Alonso (Ferrari)
2012: Nico Rosberg (Mercedes)
2011: Lewis Hamilton (McLaren)
Drivers who usually thrive at Shanghai are:
- Lewis Hamilton
- Lando Norris
- Nico Hülkenberg
- Alex Albon
- Fernando Alonso
Hamilton is the most winning driver at this track. Sure, he also had the best car for many seasons, but he had impressive wins on multiple occasions, especially in 2011 where he put in one of his best-ever performances. He was also incredible in the sprint race last year.
We have a small sample size on Norris. He was not impressive on this track as a rookie in 2019, but he was flying here in 2024.
Hülkenberg has scored points in China on many occasions and even took the fastest lap one time. He also has much more experience on the track than the young drivers who will take part this year.
Albon was way ahead of Sargeant last year, and that wasn’t the only time he shined in China. He also had an excellent race in 2019 where he scored points after starting last. Considering the strong pace of the new Williams, Albon could be in for a great points finish this year.
Alonso has won in China twice, with an easy win in 2005 and a hard-fought one in 2013. He’s also been on pole, set the fastest lap, and scored podiums on many occasions. In 2014, he brought the horrible Ferrari to the podium here.
Drivers who typically underperform at Shanghai are:
- Lance Stroll
- George Russell
- Yuki Tsunoda
Sure, Stroll underperforms almost everywhere, but in China it’s a bit worse. He was out-qualified by Sirotkin in 2018, and last year he was more than a half second per lap off the pace of his teammate Alonso.
Russell only has two Chinese races behind him, but he’s never done anything special here. That could change of course, but in 2019 it was one of the races with the smallest margin to his teammate Kubica, and in 2024 he had a very mediocre performance.
Tsunoda was way off the pace in China last year. It was one of the few weekends where Ricciardo had a clear advantage.
Betting on the 2025 Chinese GP
We will be adding our bets in another article in the final hours up until the sessions.
Our prediction
Pole position: Lando Norris (McLaren)
Race winner: Lando Norris (McLaren)
2nd: Oscar Piastri (McLaren)
3rd: Max Verstappen (Red Bull)