The first race of the year is just a few days away! We have already looked at the betting markets and locked in a few predictions. Get the overview here.
This post will be UPDATED as we add more bets. You can also find our bets on Bettin.gs, where we lock in our bets for verification purposes, and on Reddit where we frequently share and discuss F1 bets.
We are keeping our unit count down for the first Grand Prix weekend of the year. Our standard bet is typically 2-3 units, but we’ll stick to 1 unit per bet in Australia unless we find particularly big value.
Qualifying bets
Lando Norris to win pole position @ 2.85 (1 unit) (Sportsbet)
The big favourite to get pole position is Lando Norris, and we also like his chances on a hot and dry Saturday afternoon. His McLaren should be the fastest, and Norris has out-qualified his teammates 4 out of 4 times at Albert Park. Getting odds 2.85 looks great!
Oscar Piastri top 3 @ 2.20 (1 unit) (Bwin)
Again, McLaren should be strong. This also gives Oscar Piastri a good chance as well. Even if Norris takes pole, he could easily start in the top 3 and score a nice result in his home race.
Fernando Alonso to qualify ahead of Lance Stroll @ 1.32 (1 unit) (Cloudbet)
Alonso has beaten Stroll at an 82% rate in qualifying during their time as teammates. Even if we account for a small decline due to age, this odds is too high.
Kimi Antonelli to qualify ahead of Carlos Sainz @ 2.25 (1 unit) (SBO)
The Mercedes should be faster than the Williams when it all goes down. Antonelli is driving his first race, so that’s the concern, and Sainz is strong in Australia. But we must go with the faster car when we get underdog odds.
Pierre Gasly to qualify ahead of Jack Doohan @ 1.36 (1 unit) (Bwin)
We project Gasly to beat Doohan in at least 80% of qualifying matchups. In other words, odds 1.36 seems too good.
Esteban Ocon to qualify ahead of Oliver Bearman @ 1.35 (1 unit) (Pinnacle)
Ocon should beat Bearman at around a 65% rate this season. But he could have a larger advantage at the start of the season, as Ocon tends to do well in the opening rounds and is consistently solid. The Haas car looks horrible after Friday practice. Bearman’s confidence could be down after crashing the car in FP1.
Race bets
Max Verstappen to finish ahead of Lando Norris @ 2.65 (1 unit) (Bwin)
Rain is forecasted for Sunday afternoon, and this benefits Max Verstappen who along with Lewis Hamilton is the best in the rain. In any case, Verstappen is an excellent racer and getting 2.65 on him in a race matchup should be worth trying.
Pierre Gasly to finish ahead of Alex Albon @ 2.05 (1 unit) (SBO)
Gasly and Albon are both underperformers at Albert Park, but Albon much more than Gasly. Williams looked faster than Alpine in winter testing, but who knows if it was a fluke, and Alpine ended 2024 strongly. This matchup is probably 50-50 so we like the value on Gasly. Certainly enough for a small bet.
Lewis Hamilton to finish ahead of Charles Leclerc @ 3.45 (1 unit) (Stake)
A risky one, but Hamilton is usually great in the rain while Leclerc rarely shines in those conditions.
Esteban Ocon to finish ahead of Oliver Bearman @ 1.38 (1 unit) (Pinnacle)
Bearman has struggled and completed very few laps in Australia so far. Ocon is strong in wet conditions.
Carlos Sainz to finish ahead of Alex Albon @ 2.50 (1 unit) (Stake)
Albon was faster in qualifying, but the race could be chaotic and 2.50 is a decent odds for Sainz to win this matchup.