For the second weekend in a row, we have a race weekend. While the Japanese Grand Prix was fairly boring, it did offer a few surprises, such as Max Verstappen being able to win against the superior McLarens.
We have a lot more data on the drivers and teams after 3 completed races, and furthermore, Bahrain was the track where winter testing took place. Here’s a preview ahead of the GP weekend.
Bahrain GP news and buildup
There hasn’t been enough time for much more news to develop out of the paddock, but rumours say that Jack Doohan’s seat is red hot at the moment. Franco Colapinto tested for Alpine and was allegedly impressed. While it doesn’t seem like Doohan will be replaced this weekend, it could happen once the triple-header is over and F1 moves to Miami for round 6.
Ferrari team members have expressed some disappointment in the performance of their car. It’s still early in the season, and since they were doing fairly well at the winter test in Bahrain, there’s a chance things could improve this weekend. Bahrain is also a very strong track for Charles Leclerc. Ferrari is also expected to change some things to the car.
Haas will suffer under new US tariffs, and the company even officially sent out a press note explaining the issues tariffs could cause the machine tools industry.
Five young drivers will take part in a practice session in Bahrain: Frederik Vesti (Mercedes), Luke Browning (Williams), Felipe Drugovich (Aston Martin), Ryo Hirakawa (Haas) and Dino Beganovic (Ferrari).
The track
The Sakhir Circuit often provides some decent races, and we can hope for the same to happen this year. It’s a relatively long circuit with several straights but also some heavy braking zones. The track is known to develop and become faster over time, so keep an eye on that in qualifying.
There should be opportunities to overtake during the 57 laps. Especially on the main straight, but we’ve seen some drivers perform excellent overtakes through the corners in Bahrain before. With 3 DRS zones that also brings opportunities.
Sector 2 has an excellent flow and that’s typically where the driver can make a difference. Sectors 1 and 3 are somewhat simple and much more dependent on car performance. Tyre degradation could be an issue as the race progresses, at least for the teams that sometimes struggle with it.
The lap record was set by Pedro de la Rosa for McLaren in 2005 as he stepped in as a substitute for Juan Pablo Montoya. It’s unlikely this lap record will be broken. Strangely, McLaren has never won at Bahrain before.
Weather forecast
Zero percent risk of rain this time, so it should be a fast and straightforward race. Temperatures are high, although not super high at the time they are driving.
TV times
The race takes place at 6 pm Sunday local time and qualifying is at 7 pm Saturday.
That means Europeans get the race in the late afternoon, while Americans can watch it in the morning.
Of course, there are fans all over the world and in many different time zones. You can convert to your time here.
Favourites and underdogs
Despite losing the last round in Japan, and despite never having won in Bahrain before, McLaren must still be considered the best team at the moment.
Lando Norris is relatively strong in Bahrain and should be seen as the favourite driver to win the race. Oscar Piastri hasn’t shown much in Bahrain, he had a downright bad debut in 2023 before performing just decently last year. But Piastri has taken a step up and seems much closer to Norris’s pace this season, so anything can happen.
Last weekend, Max Verstappen proved that he could win without having the best car. But he’s always been great at Suzuka. In Bahrain, it could be slightly more difficult. He struggled on the Sakhir track in his early years, before finally coming to grips with the track in 2021. He’s won it the last two years, although with clearly the best machinery on both occasions. We think it’s a bit less likely that he wins this time around.
Ferrari will probably make a few changes to their car. Charles Leclerc is usually impressive at Sakhir and could perhaps bring a surprising challenge as an underdog. We could see Leclerc finish on the podium. His teammate Lewis Hamilton has the record for most wins in Bahrain (5) and could also be a threat.
The rookie drivers could also perform better than usual, as they’ve tried driving in Bahrain before, both in junior series where the track is common, plus in the winter test leading up to the season. The most impressive rookie so far is Isack Hadjar, who seems very fast in the Racing Bulls car. However, it was Gabriel Bortoleto who set pole position at Bahrain in F2 last year. Kimi Antonelli and Oliver Bearman both had bad races as they struggled to get the setup right.
Previous results
Here are the last 10 winners of the Bahrain Grand Prix:
2024: Max Verstappen (Red Bull)
2023: Max Verstappen (Red Bull)
2022: Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)
2021: Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
2020: Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
2019: Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
2018: Sebastian Vettel (Ferrari)
2017: Sebastian Vettel (Ferrari)
2016: Nico Rosberg (Mercedes)
2015: Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
Drivers who usually thrive at Sakhir are:
- Charles Leclerc
- Max Verstappen
- Lewis Hamilton
- Lando Norris
- Pierre Gasly
- Alex Albon
Leclerc has always done quite well at Bahrain and showed great pace, although also mixed with bad luck at times. Verstappen never had that strong results in Bahrain until 2021 where he seemed to turn things around. Hamilton is a five-time winner at the track, but he is no longer at his peak, so you could question whether he will still perform super well.
Norris had an impressive debut in 2019 and has performed quite admirably against his teammates ever since.
Gasly has some very strong qualifying performances and also some decent race performances at Sakhir, so it’s definitely one of his stronger tracks.
Albon has also performed better than expected. He was once on the podium here, and during his Williams era, he has been clearly ahead of his teammates and even finished in the top 10.
Drivers who usually struggle at Sakhir are:
- Oscar Piastri
- Lance Stroll
- Oliver Bearman
Piastri has had a tough start to his Bahrain races. Even in F2, Sakhir was one of the few tracks where he wasn’t dominant.
Stroll is bad at most tracks, but he is usually well behind his teammate in Bahrain and it could be considered one of his worst tracks.
Bearman was really bad at the track in F2 in both 2023 and 2024, so perhaps we shouldn’t expect too much of him here. It could be a good betting opportunity to fade him in some matchups.
Aside from that, Bahrain is a track where 2 out of 3 sectors depend strongly on car performance, particularly when it comes to engine performance, braking and tyre wear. So it’s less of a driver’s track and more of a car’s track.
Betting on the 2025 Bahrain GP
Bets for the weekend will be published in another article later! They can also be seen on our predictions page.
Our prediction
Pole position: Lando Norris (McLaren)
Race winner: Lando Norris (McLaren)
2nd: Oscar Piastri (McLaren)
3rd: Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)