Bets for the Bahrain GP weekend will be posted here.
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Qualifying
Pole position: Norris or Leclerc @ 2.18 (3 units) (Sportsbet.io)
Norris is the favourite to get pole as he’s driving the fastest car. Piastri has never been that impressive in Bahrain; that could change, but the value is on Norris. Additionally, Leclerc has set pole in 2 of 7 attempts in Bahrain, and Ferrari bringing upgrades to the car. Sportsbet.io (and other books with the same odds provider) offers 2.55 for Norris to win qualifying and 15.00 for Leclerc to win it. If we combine the two (85% of the stake on Norris; 15% on Leclerc) we effectively get odds 2.18 and are equally covered if either of the two drivers gets pole.
Leclerc top 3 @ 3.25 (0.5 unit) (Bwin)
Leclerc has qualified in the top 3 in Bahrain every time since 2022. He was around 3 tenths off the pole lap in Japan while qualifying fourth, so he’s not that far off – and the car gets upgraded this weekend. Therefore, it’s worth it to add a half unit extra on Leclerc to qualify in the top 3.
Alonso to beat Stroll @ 1.30 (2 units) (Unibet)
Alonso beats Stroll at an 83% rate, he’s 2-0 against Stroll as teammates in Bahrain, and 3-0 in qualifying sessions this year (3-1 if you include the sprint quali). Stroll was injured in Bahrain 2023, but he’s never been great at this track, while Alonso has enjoyed decent success here. Kambi’s 1.30 is a bit higher than it should be. Perhaps Alonso is declining due to his age, but at this point he’s still better than Stroll.
Ocon to beat Bearman @ 2.60 (2 units) (Bwin)
Ocon underperformed in Japan, and Bearman was faster in FP2. So why bet Ocon? Well, it’s concerning that Bearman is in such great form this month, but I honestly believe that Ocon is a better driver at this stage in their careers. Bearman was also terrible at this track in F2, so let’s bet Ocon as an underdog. 2.60 is too high, the odds should probably be around 2.10.
Sainz to beat Tsunoda @ 2.00 (2 units) (Bwin)
The second Red Bull car truly struggles so I’m looking to bet against it until they get things in order. Hoping the best for Tsunoda, but it could be another tough weekend for him. Sainz has also struggled to start the year, but he was great in the winter test at this track and in FP2 he was 4 tenths faster than Tsunoda.
Race
Alonso to beat Lawson @ 1.62 (2 units) (SBO)
Alonso starts ahead of Lawson and often gains a few places on the first lap. Lawson is not in great shape at the moment and his team is hopeless strategically. Alonso’s car is slow but he’s such a fighter that I think there’s around 70% chance of him winning this matchup.
Sainz to beat Tsunoda @ 1.87 (2 units) (SBO)
This was a bet I had for qualifying and I will repeat it in the race. Sainz is a dependable driver. He’s still getting used to the Williams, but he’s not as uncomfortable in the car as Tsunoda is at the moment. Sainz’s best lap in qualifying was more than a half second quicker than Tsunoda’s best, so I honestly didn’t expect this price!
Verstappen to beat Antonelli @ 1.95 (2 units) (Bwin)
Objectively, the Mercedes is faster than the Red Bull. But I could see a scenario where Verstappen gets a great start, passes Antonelli and stays ahead. Despite Antonelli looking very promising, Verstappen is perhaps the greatest racer ever and should be favoured over the rookie. If we’re lucky, there could be a very entertaining duel between these two.
Albon to beat Doohan @ 1.93 (1 unit) (SBO)
Albon usually has good racepace so he could overcome his inferior starting position. Doohan is one of the most mistake-prone drivers and rumours say he’s dealing with a minor injury which could show over a race distance. The risk is that Doohan’s Alpine actually looks good at this track.
Leclerc to beat Norris @ 2.75 (0.5 unit) (Bwin)
and
Russell to beat Norris @ 2.65 (0.5 unit) (Bwin)
Maybe I’m overreacting due to Lando’s bad qualifying, but he seems like he has lost his confidence. His realistic goal is to reach 2nd place in the race, however I think there’s a decent chance that one of Leclerc or Russell can keep him behind. I’m splitting a unit on two matchups, if just one beats Norris, we profit a bit, and if both manage to finish ahead of him, it pays well.
Fastest pitstop: Ferrari @ 2.10 (0.5 unit) (Stake)
Found this one on Stake and thought it was interesting. The Ferrari mechanics have been super efficient this year and they’ve set the fastest pitstop time in each of the first three races. This type of bet is high volatility hence only a half unit, but I actually like the value.