Performing better than your teammate is the goal of (almost) every Formula One driver. As fans, we generally tend to rate the drivers based on how they perform in these matchups.
In some teams, it’s obvious from the start who is going to win. Others are more difficult to predict, and sometimes there are drivers that outright surprise us.
Let’s try to predict who wins the teammate battles in both qualifying and races!
McLaren
Qualifying: Norris 45% – 55% Piastri
Races: Norris 48% – 52% Piastri
Piastri gained a lot of ground on Norris last year. For a long time, he was the superior McLaren driver, until he hit a bad streak in the autumn. If Piastri can just take a little step further forward and be consistent throughout the year, he should have an edge over Norris – but it’s close and could go either way!
Red Bull
Qualifying: Verstappen 90% – 10% Hadjar
Races: Verstappen 95% – 5% Hadjar
Verstappen will obviously win this matchup over the entire season, but Hadjar might get closer to him than Tsunoda was – which, sadly, isn’t saying much. We saw in his rookie year that Hadjar’s strength was qualifying: Clean, fast laps against the clock. He still needs some experience to be a great racer. He may luckily beat Verstappen one in ten times in qualy and one in twenty – by merit – in races.
Mercedes
Qualifying: Russell 80% – 20% Antonelli
Races: Russell 77% – 23% Antonelli
In 2025, Russell beat Antonelli at an 87.5% rate. This will likely drop a bit this year as Antonelli has a year of experience. Generally, it would be easier for the younger driver to fine-tune his qualifying performance in the second year, but Antonelli projects to gain more in races as Russell’s specialty is qualifying. The delta between Russell and Antonelli is one of the most certain on the grid.
Ferrari
Qualifying: Leclerc 83% – 17% Hamilton
Races: Leclerc 76% – 24% Hamilton
Hamilton ended 2025 with some real stinkers. He has to do better in 2026, but it could prove difficult as he is another year older, while Leclerc is operating at his absolute peak. Furthermore, Hamilton has shown so many frustrations at Ferrari – not a good look. The team could prioritise Leclerc (as they should). The Monegasque is one of the best pilots this century and should easily dominate Hamilton as he did last year.
Williams
Qualifying: Sainz 65% – 35% Albon
Races: Sainz 54% – 46% Albon
Albon had an impressive start to 2025 but Sainz eventually improved and ended the season on a higher note. Sainz was clearly faster than Albon in qualifying and was often unlucky in races. The Spaniard projects to beat Albon by a larger margin in qualifying this year, and he will finally get the upper hand in races, too – although it looks close.
Aston Martin
Qualifying: Alonso 92% – 8% Stroll
Races: Alonso 78% – 22% Stroll
Alonso dominated Stroll last year but had some misfortune in the races. Now he’s a year older and has to accommodate to an entirely new car – but he should still do that better than Stroll who simply sucks! It’s not even close here, however, Stroll could benefit from good luck in some races. Alonso’s edge could turn out larger if the car is competitive and he smells blood; or it could be smaller if the car underperforms and he loses motivation throughout the year.
Racing Bulls
Qualifying: Lindblad 61% – 39% Lawson
Races: Lindblad 52% – 48% Lawson
Lindblad should instantly match – and eventually beat – Lawson. He’s one of the biggest young talents out there, after all. Lawson simply isn’t an impressive driver. He is okay in certain situations but lacks qualifying pace and makes too many errors in the races.
Audi
Qualifying: Bortoleto 59% – 41% Hülkenberg
Races: Bortoleto 50% – 50% Hülkenberg
Bortoleto, surprisingly, beat Hülkenberg on Saturdays in his rookie year. This could be pure variance, but perhaps Hülkenberg is focusing more on race setups in his older years. However, the delta is slowly shifting in the Brazilian’s favour, even in races. Ultimately, it will be very close between the two.
Haas
Qualifying: Bearman 53% – 47% Ocon
Races: Bearman 49% – 51% Ocon
Bearman surprisingly out-performed Ocon slightly in 2024. Everything points towards Ocon having a down year, but Bearman is obviously very good. Ocon could bounce back in performance, while Bearman develops further – giving us a really nice matchup, one of the closest on the grid, that is essentially near 50-50.
Alpine
Qualifying: Gasly 79% – 21% Colapinto
Races: Gasly 62% – 38% Colapinto
Gasly is much faster than Colapinto in qualifying. He should have a clear edge in races too, but Gasly lacks a bit of consistency over an entire race distance, and there are parts of each season where he loses motivation for a month or two. Colapinto is also expected to develop a bit further, as this will be the first year where he’s on the grid from the start. Still, Gasly is a clear favourite in this matchup and probably wins the duel way more often than not.
Cadillac
Qualifying: Bottas 76% – 24% Pérez
Races: Bottas 44% – 56% Pérez
This one is interesting because these two crappy drivers have entirely different skill-sets. Bottas is fast on a single flying lap against the clock, but he lacks racecraft and overtaking skills, so he rarely advances on Sundays. Pérez is the opposite: He often underperforms in qualifying, only to manage his tyres perfectly the next day and somehow sneak by several other cars. Pérez has more upside than Bottas, especially on street circuits, and will likely outscore the Finn on points.