Throughout 2025, I shared my F1 bets publicly here on RaceValue (and on a few other platforms). With great success as the final outcome was a +10% ROI.
I will continue sharing F1 betting predictions in 2026, but with some changes. Let’s look into the plan, shall we…
Bets for every race
Last year, I reached a total of 100 shared bets. That’s obviously a fair amount, but I had a bit of a hiatus through the middle of the season.
This year, the goal is to have some more consistency and deliver betting picks for every race, or at least the vast majority.
The exact number of bets obviously depends on whether or not there’s any value to be found. Based on previous years of betting, I generally expect to find 3-4 value bets for each qualifying and a similar number for each race. If that is true, we should end up with around 140-190 bets for the entire year, so let’s call that a goal.
Clear focus on H2H matchups
Matchups are the best F1 markets. It’s quite straightforward to analyse a simple matchup between two drivers.
The value is not always super high, yet it’s often there.
I will concede that some of the smaller markets (like fastest pitstop, winning margin, safety cars) frequently hold more value. But by betting these markets, you get limited quickly.
H2H matchups are provided by several of the ‘sharp’ bookmakers such as Pinnacle and SBO. Also, Bet365 usually have fairly decent limits on these markets. Most other bookmakers will limit users heavily though, even in H2H. Which is a shame because Bwin, Unibet and others have super inaccurate odds at times.
Outrights are fine too, though. I will continue betting them (along with matchups). In certain races there can be really good value on betting the race winner, whether a driver finishes in the top 3, top 10, etc.
As for the actual analysis model I use for spotting value, I can’t really say too much…
Only using the biggest bookmakers
I found out that last year, some followers couldn’t place bets with the smaller bookies who stood out with higher odds.
For this reason, to make the predictions as useful as possible for most followers, I’m only recommending bets from Pinnacle, SBO, Bet365, Betfair and Polymarket.
Limits are much higher at those places.
So I’ll only recommend bets that can be found there. It’s simply more useful for myself in terms of placing large bets, and for followers who can still tail the bets without the odds dropping too much.
I might still note if a smaller bookie has a potential value bet, and it will be mentioned on social media, but it won’t be part of official picks here on RaceValue. It will simply be a sidenote.
A +5% ROI is the goal
Last year, I managed a +10% ROI with my F1 bets. That was an extremely positive result: I only wish the volume was higher.
This year, I expect to increase the volume a bit, focus only on matchups and outrights, and only use the “biggest” bookmakers that actually allow higher stakes – with a much smaller risk of personal limitations.
For those reasons the goal is a +5% ROI in 2026. It’s a realistic goal that would be nice to achieve, and if we end up even higher, it will just be great. Variance is a very real thing in betting though, and especially in F1 where yellow flags, safety cars, collisions and car failures can change everything drastically in a split second.
But value is value, and I intend to find it!
Many preparations
I have used the off-season to accumulated various statistics that will be used for the upcoming betting year. I have also spent time re-watching old races, identifying driver styles better, and obviously looked at the likely performance order of the new cars.
I have also set up many new formulas in my spreadsheet to identify value spots and rate drivers more accurately against each other. For that, a brand new rankings model was needed. That should also result in more accurate driver and team rankings in general, which I update every Monday after a race.
Active on X, too
In 2025, I shared bets on this site, on Reddit and on Bettin.gs.
That will continue, but I have also made an X account in order to (hopefully) connect with more people. Sharing bets is one thing, but I’d love to get more feedback on my picks, and see what other F1 bettors have to say. Reddit is pretty good in that regard, but I have a feeling X could be useful as well.
If you like, go and follow RaceValue on X!
Becoming the best (public) F1 bettor in the world
That’s my ultimate goal, and hopefully 2026 will be a step in that direction. I hope I can provide some great F1 picks for you guys this season, and I also hope to have some constructive discussions about F1 on social media!
