Fernando Alonso was the overall best racing driver of the 2010s – but sadly his output was limited due to the disastrous decision to join McLaren-Honda in 2015.
Alonso had some good reasons to try a gamble following the 2014 rules change. But even the Ferrari engineers regretted that Alonso left, as they believed he would have been much more capable than Sebastian Vettel in the 2017 and 2018 title fights.
That brings up the question – what if Fernando Alonso stayed with Ferrari up until his first sabbatical in 2019? How close would he have gotten to the titles, how many Grand Prix wins would he have racked up, and how would the butterfly effect have impacted the rest of the paddock?
Let’s look into it!
2015 season
Vettel signed with Ferrari in November 2014, which was before Alonso officially announced his move to McLaren. Alonso did have a contract with Ferrari and could have chosen to stay with the team, alongside Vettel. In this What-If scenario, we assume that Alonso – for whatever reason – preferred to fulfill his Ferrari contract.
That means Raikkonen would have left the team. Where would Kimi had gone? Well, McLaren needed a high-profile driver and we know that they were interested in him as late as 2018. We assume he would have returned to McLaren, taking the place Alonso took in real life.
Alternate lineups:
Ferrari: Alonso – Vettel
McLaren: Button – Raikkonen
In terms of driver talent, we now know (based on their real performances alongside Raikkonen and Stroll) that Alonso is a much superior driver than Vettel. The German had a strong year in 2015, but Alonso would have done even better and beaten Rosberg to second place in the championship and taken 4 wins along the way, with Vettel just getting 1 in this scenario. Hamilton would still have won the title, though, and quite clearly so.
In a struggling McLaren, Button would likely come out on top against Raikkonen, but obviously it would change nothing in terms of the championship battle as McLaren were one of the worst teams in 2015.
Alternate standings:
1. Hamilton (Mercedes)
2. Alonso (Ferrari)
3. Rosberg (Mercedes)
2016 season
No lineup changes at the front, but Vettel’s reputation as a top driver is wearing thin after losing by ~70 points to Alonso the previous year.
Lineups:
Ferrari: Alonso – Vettel
McLaren: Button – Raikkonen
It’s hard to tell whether Ferrari had a worse car in 2016 than they did in 2015, or if Vettel just had a down year. He didn’t score a single win in reality, but Kimi scored more points in 2016 than in 2015. So most likely, the car was fine, yet still far off the dominant Mercedes.
Even Alonso could not touch the 2016 Mercedes, but he would have secured four wins along the way, yet again, and taken 3rd ahead of Ricciardo in the standings. Interestingly, he would have gotten in the way of Hamilton more than Rosberg, so Nico still wins the title, possibly with a slightly larger margin.
Over at McLaren, Button projects to defeat Raikkonen again, but this time by a much smaller margin. This will have an effect on the upcoming season’s lineup.
Alternate standings:
1. Rosberg (Mercedes)
2. Hamilton (Mercedes)
3. Alonso (Ferrari)
2017 season
With Vettel losing to Alonso twice in a row, the German probably leaves Ferrari to try his luck elsewhere. We see him going to Renault, an attractive proposition at the time, and he would sign that contract early in 2016, while Hülkenberg instead signs for the open seat at Ferrari.
McLaren really wanted to promote Stoffel Vandoorne for 2017. The Belgian enters F1 in the place of Raikkonen, who moves back to Sauber two years early in place of Wehrlein, while Button’s F1 career is extended.
As in real life, Rosberg retires at Mercedes, with Bottas getting the promotion.
Lineups:
Ferrari: Alonso – Hülkenberg
McLaren: Button – Vandoorne
Renault: Vettel – Palmer/Sainz
Sauber: Raikkonen – Ericsson
Here it begins to get really interesting. Ferrari were close to Mercedes in 2017. Now, in real life, Alonso had a bit of a down year in 2017, while Vettel actually performed very well.
That brings up some questions: Would Alonso have performed closer to his potential if he was in a top car rather than a backmarker McLaren? Maybe, but we don’t have enough certainty to put him as the winner of the season. Based on Alonso’s 2017 level, he and Vettel were about even that year, so Alonso likely would have finished second in the title race, just like Vettel actually did.
Hülkenberg would have been a better second driver than Raikkonen, though, but still too far off to win the constructor’s title for Ferrari.
Vettel’s excellent 2017 level would have been enough to demolish Palmer at Renault and potentially improve his reputation a bit.
At Sauber, Raikkonen would have destroyed the slow Ericsson.
Vandoorne was actually a good driver but unfortunate enough to be teamed up with Alonso, just like so many drivers before him. In this scenario, he would be performing very close to Button’s level, perhaps even beating the aging Englishman, and certainly be looked upon more favourably.
Alternate results:
1. Hamilton (Mercedes)
2. Alonso (Ferrari)
3. Bottas (Mercedes)
2018 season
The lineups stay the same as the previous season, aside from Leclerc debuting next to Raikkonen (rather than Ericsson) at Sauber.
Lineups:
Ferrari: Alonso – Hülkenberg
McLaren: Button – Vandoorne
Renault: Vettel – Sainz
Sauber: Raikkonen – Leclerc
This time it finally happens! Fernando Alonso was very strong in 2018, and in the Ferrari SF71H, which was close to Mercedes in terms of pace, he is projected to beat Hamilton for the title. What a story.
In real life, Vettel was running neck-and-neck with Hamilton until midseason, but made crucial mistakes and lost pace by the end of the year, while team mate Raikkonen still had it.
Alonso would have maximised results and stayed fast the entire year, possibly with Ferrari being even more motivated to put all resources into the 2018 car to finally win it all.
In other parts of the paddock, Vettel beats Sainz and establishes himself as Renault’s lead driver going forward. Leclerc beats Raikkonen as a rookie, an impressive feat considering that Raikkonen was very solid in 2018, while Vandoorne gets ahead of Button, leading to an extended career for the Belgian.
Alternate results:
1. Alonso (Ferrari)
2. Hamilton (Mercedes)
3. Verstappen (Red Bull)
2019 and the following years…
Now we can play around with more questions, but everything becomes a bit cloudy.
Would Alonso still “retire” in 2019 had he won the title with Ferrari in 2018?
Most likely not, but even if he stayed, he would be unable to compete for titles at least until 2022. And by that time, it’s easy to imagine him being tired of F1 and retiring at some point before that anyway. Perhaps this time for good, being satisfied with 3 titles and roughly 50 wins, not seeing the need to come back for Alpine/Aston Martin.
Leclerc would also go to Ferrari in 2019, regardless of whether Alonso stay or not, potentially creating a monster duel at the Scuderia and upsetting the status quo in a 2007-esque scenario against Alonso.
The things we can clearly imagine, though, is that McLaren would keep Vandoorne who is looked upon with much more appreciation had he not faced Alonso. Top talent Lando Norris is still brought in as well.
With Ricciardo still joining Renault, we get the RIC-VET rematch five years later, and it could go in either direction. Carlos Sainz, however, is the big loser in all of these butterfly effects. He cannot stay at Renault, nor join McLaren, and may not get the big revival of his career that he actually achieved driving for the Woking-squad in 2019 and 2020.
Conclusion
Fernando Alonso’s career, naturally, would have been much better had he stayed at Ferrari. We project him to perform better than Sebastian Vettel did. Still not quite enough to win the title in the 2015-2017 years, but Alonso in the 2018 Ferrari probably would have been a package strong enough to win the championship, even against a very strong Lewis Hamilton.
Consequences? Hamilton would have a title less, Vettel’s reputation would have taken a further hit, Kimi’s second Ferrari stint would have been just a single year, Button’s overall career would have been two years longer, and Vandoorne may still have been an F1 driver to this day, had he not faced the mighty Spaniard.