We are returning with some bets for the Mexican Grand Prix, or the Mexico City GP as they call it this year.
Very rusty due to not having shared bets since Monaco, so keeping the unit count low.
Qualifying
Verstappen pole @ 1.75 (Betfair) (1 unit)
With Red Bull bringing 4 updates, Verstappen generally being spectacular recently, and this being one of his favourite tracks – I like his odds of winning qualifying.
Norris > Piastri @ 1.50 (Bet365) (1 unit)
Piastri hasn’t been that impressive at this track, and generally it seems like Norris has the upper hand on pace recently.
Gasly > Colapinto @ 1.75 (Bwin) (1 unit)
Perhaps a risky one since Gasly clearly lacks motivation at the moment. But he usually performs well in Mexico and is a qualifying specialist. Last year, Colapinto was a half second off his teammate at this track.
Gasly to reach Q3 @ 17.00 (Bwin) (0.5 unit)
Super longshot obviously due to the slow Alpine that isn’t being developed much, but Gasly is a decent qualifier and the weaknesses of the Alpine are most obvious in the race distance. Even though this bet is unlikely to hit, it’s a fun one. At the same time, if Gasly shits the bed in qualifying, I’ll feel pretty stupid having lost a total of 1.5 units backing him.
Sainz > Albon @ 1.69 (Pinnacle) (1 unit)
Sainz has struggled in races but he’s actually up 10-8 on Albon on Saturdays. This is one of his better tracks and he was ahead in FP2.
Hülkenberg > Bortoleto @ 1.89 (SBO) (1 unit)
Hulk had a great FP1, in FP2 they were about even. Main factor here is that Hülkenberg has usually done okay at this track, while it’s Bortoleto’s first try.
Bearman > Ocon @ 1.90 (Unibet) (1 unit)
Bearman is up 10-8 in qualifying over Ocon and seems more inspired recently. Ocon has never really been great at this track. I feel like Bearman should be a clearer favourite in this matchup.
Leclerc > Hamilton @ 1.45 (Pinnacle) (1 unit)
Leclerc is ahead 14-5 on Saturdays against Hamilton, he was faster in practice, and he has a good record at this track. We are not getting incredible odds or anything, but it’s enough value for a unit.
Leclerc top 3 in qualifying @ 2.20 (Bwin) (0.5 unit)
An extra one. Not unlikely that one of the McLarens makes a mistake in Q3, or that Leclerc simply breaks into the top 3 by merit. The Ferraris look decent this weekend, based on practice.
Hadjar > Lawson @ 1.787 (Pinnacle) (1 unit)
Simply backing the better driver. Hadjar ahead 12-5 over Lawson thus far.
Alonso > Stroll @ 1.28 (SBO) (1 unit)
This has simply been an automatic lock this year with Alonso being up 18-0. Mexico could be closer than usual though, as it’s one of Alonso’s weaker tracks. Maybe there’s not even value this time but out of principle, I will still bet against Stroll.
Race
Will be posted Saturday night or Sunday morning.
Leclerc or Hamilton to lead after 1 lap @ 2.18 (1 unit) (Betfair/Bet365)
Norris is the worst starter in F1 so he may not keep his lead on lap 1. Leclerc is the second-best starter in F1 and lines up next to him. Hamilton starts 3rd which is a really good grid slot at this track, considering the distance to the first corner. I found Leclerc at 3.61 (Betfair) and Hamilton at 5.50 (Bet365). If we place 60% of the stake on Leclerc and 40% on Hamilton, we effectively combine the two and get odds 2.18. To win this bet, either Leclerc or Hamilton must be the leader when the first lap is done.
Sainz > Tsunoda @ 1.94 (1 unit) (Stake)
I like any kind of bet that involves Sainz doing well on this track. He was so fast in qualifying and has a great record here. He qualified 7th but starts 12th due to a penalty from the last round. Tsunoda will be one of his first targets in the race.
Colapinto > Gasly @ 3.25 (1 unit) (Bet365)
Yesterday we backed Gasly, and today we switch around. It gets pretty random at the back of the field, Gasly is driving without much motivation, while Colapinto is fighting for a seat next year. Colapinto’s entire goal is to beat his team mate and as we saw a week ago, he will not respond to team orders that favour Gasly. They are 6-6 through the season, and Colapinto only starts two slots behind Gasly, so I like the value here. Bet365 sticking out with odds 3.25, Stake with 3.20, while other bookies pay around 2.50.
Alonso > Lawson @ 1.70 (1 unit) (Unibet)
Alonso has been driving well recently and is overall a much better driver than Lawson. The Spaniard starts just one place ahead, but he is such a good starter that the gap is probably larger after lap 1 – and from there he should simply out-race Lawson.
Albon > Bortoleto @ 1.65 (1 unit) (Bwin)
Albon was a bit unlucky and got eliminated in Q1 yesterday. But his strength is racecraft, he usually advances on Sundays, and should be able to get ahead of Bortoleto, unless something weird happens.
Piastri > Antonelli @ 1.48 (1 unit) (SBO)
Another driver I expect to advance. Piastri had a really bad qualifying. But the car obviously has potential for more. Passing Antonelli, who starts just one spot ahead, is a mandatory task for the Australian driver who is fighting for the title.
Verstappen top 3 @ 1.86 (1 unit) (Unibet)
He had a really disappointing qualifying, but this is still a strong track for Verstappen. His setup could favour the race. It will be difficult for him to win from fifth, but a podium should be within reach if things go right for him at the start.
