Betting on F1 is probably the main reason why people visit this site. We try to have fun with it and earn some money as well. 2025 was a pretty good year in that regard, as we ended with a 10% ROI.
Let’s have a closer look at the data to see where we performed well – and where we can improve for next year.
The overall stats
Overall, we placed 100 bets on Formula 1 in 2025. Nice round number. But not really a large enough sample size to conclude anything, yet still fun to look into.
The plan was obviously to have placed more bets – closer to the 200-300 range. But we took a fairly long break between Monaco and Mexico. Next year, we aim for more consistency and have bets for every single Grand Prix (as long as there is value to be found).
Anyway, out of those 100 bets we won 59 and lost 41.
Most of those bets were placed on H2H matchups. Some were outright markets though, and we also had five seasonal bets, placed before the start of the season.
The average stake was 1.2 unit. For reference, we operate with a system where 1 unit equals 1% of the bankroll. Our maximum stake is set to 3 units. We may also bet less than one unit, such as 0.25 or 0.5 unit – which happened a few times, mainly super long shots.
The average odds was 2.40, fairly high. But we actually had more bets under odds 2.00 (55) than above (45). So we mainly backed favourites and equal matchups, but a few long shots made the average odds high.
The final result was 12.07 units won and a ROI of +10.04%. A really good result that we are happy with.
H2H matchups
Matchups have been the main market for our bets. 79 out of 100 bets were placed on these H2H matchups and they were fairly profitable, resulting in a +7.4% ROI.
Not only are matchups super fun – there are always a lot of options to choose from. Most bookmakers have these markets, and the sharp ones (Pinnacle, SBO and Bet365) focus strongly on them.
Outrights and specials
On outright bets – selecting a winner, pole sitter, podium finisher, etc – we also did extremely well. The sample size is small as we only had 17 of such bets, but the ROI was a massive +17.8% with more than five units won.
Next season, it would be interesting to look more into this and see if these numbers are sustainable over a larger sample size.
In terms of what we call ‘situational bets’, we didn’t fare so well. These are the kind of bets that are about a specific situation, such as fastest pitstop, a driver to lead a particular lap, a driver not to finish in a certain position, etc. We had a -16.9% ROI here, but also very few bets. Perhaps it’s random with this tiny sample size, or perhaps these markets are just difficult to predict. More data, over a few more seasons, could help us come to a conclusion. We are not going to stop these, as they could potentially be profitable.
Seasonal bets
We placed 5 bets before the 2025 season even started. Those were McLaren to win the WCC, Williams to beat Aston Martin in the standings, Lawson to not win a single race, Ocon to beat Bearman, and Bortoleto to beat Hülkenberg.
3 of 5 were correct, sadly the unit counts were not in our favour, and we ended up with a tiny overall loss on those bets.
But considering the value on some of them – McLaren to win WCC, and Lawson to not win a race – these kind of bets have massive potential. The value is quite insane, looking back. So ahead of 2026, we will definitely be scanning the markets for more situations like this. The bookmakers seem slow to adjust after winter testing so we could easily make good money here. The only problem is that the money is locked up for the entire year, which can be a bit annoying, because it gives us less opportunity to work with the bankroll in any exponential way.
Where we thrived
When betting on odds lower than 2.00, we had an amazing +21.9% ROI.
Generally, the best scenarios were when we backed favourites in matchups (odds lower than 1.80. 34 such bets, +15.7% ROI) and when we picked a driver in an ‘even’ matchup (odds between 1.80-2.05. 19 such bets, +38.7% ROI).
Perhaps that shows that F1 was rather boring and predictable; we hit on the ‘safe’ bets extremely often, but missed on underdogs because we wrongly anticipated variance.
Qualifying bets were very successful (+18% ROI), while race bets were roughly breakeven (+0.4% ROI). That means we should generally continue what we’re already doing in terms of preparation for qualifying bets. As for race bets, we may need to do more research and avoid overestimating the underdogs and the chance of variance (for example, don’t back a bad driver against a superior team mate because ‘anything could happen’).
Where we lost
While we did well betting on favourites, we had massive issues with underdogs. 45 bets were placed on odds higher than 2.00, with a -7.1% ROI. It’s even worse when we look at matchup-only underdogs above 2.05 where we had a horrible -25.8% over 25 bets.
We won none of the longshots of odds higher than 4.00. Small sample size, so it probably doesn’t matter. But it does seem like we thrive on favourites – maybe more ‘straightforward’ betting would improve things next year.
For some reasons, backing underdogs just didn’t work out very well in 2025. It seems to have been the same case for most other F1 bettors.
Adjustments for 2026
Variance is overrated in F1. We need to continue finding more good value spots in matchups that are considered 50-50, along with matchups where we feel very confident in backing a favourite.
A theory is that the market don’t value favourites highly enough, and that the public has a nice view of most drivers and may prefer backing underdogs believing they have a chance, thereby adjusting the odds on the market.
Underdogs should be avoided in matchups, although long shots are encouraged on outright markets – just with a comparatively lower staking size.
New ideas
Just like in 2025, we will be sharing bets on this very site, on Reddit and on Bettin.gs.
Additionally, we may share bets and participate in discussions on X as well. The idea of starting a (free) Telegram group is also being considered.