It’s time for the most iconic race in motorsports and the most intense qualifying session of the year.
The race also brings something new due to a rules change: All drivers must box at least 2 times during the race in Monaco.
Charles Leclerc finally won his home race last year, and he showed promising pace in the practice sessions. His main competitor will be Oscar Piastri who has done reasonably well in Monaco before and happens to be in great qualifying form.
We’ll keep the update short this time and go straight to the predictions:
Qualifying bets
Piastri to beat Norris @ 1.613 (1 unit) (Pinnacle)
Piastri seems to be in better form at the moment. He has generally been faster than Norris over the last two months, and he was the better looking McLaren driver in Monaco last year.
Leclerc to get pole position @ 3.10 (1 unit) (Betfair)
Leclerc is probably the favorite to get pole in Monaco based on his history, motivation and practice runs. Getting 3.10, or anything above ~2.75, screams value.
Sainz to beat Albon @ 2.07 (1 unit) (Pinnacle)
Sainz has been improving in qualifying sessions lately, although still lacking behind Albon in races. He’s usually decent in Monaco. It’s probably a 50-50 between the Williams drivers, so anything above odds 2 for either one is value.
Bortoleto to beat Hülkenberg @ 2.28 (1 unit) (SBO)
Hülkenberg hasn’t impressed that much the last few years in Monaco, while Bortoleto is gradually improving over the last few weekends – especially in quali. Another 50-50 matchup where we just take the value.
Ocon to beat Bearman @ 2.00 (1 unit) (Unibet)
Bearman looks faster than expected against Ocon. But Ocon has generally been strong in Monaco and even took a podium a few years ago. His experience could also be useful for a possibly chaotic qualifying.
Hadjar to beat Lawson @ 1.67 (1 unit) (Unibet)
Lawson is one of the worst qualifiers in recent F1. He had very good practice times on Friday, though. Yet Hadjar is visibly a better talent and should probably be paying somewhere around 1.50. So let’s take 1.67 for a unit.
Hamilton to beat Russell @ 1.83 (0.5 unit) (Bet365)
Monte Carlo is not Russell’s best track. At the same time, the Ferrari could possibly be the strongest car this weekend. Hamilton is projected to qualify slightly above Russell here, but let’s keep it to a half unit as there is one more bet against Russell.
Antonelli to beat Russell @ 3.30 (1 unit) (Bwin)
Antonelli looked pretty fast in F2 at this circuit. He also shows promise on street tracks, based on his Miami qualifying performances. Getting odds 3.30 for him to beat a teammate that hasn’t been that strong in Monaco seems like a fun opportunity.