This year, the race at Circuit de Catalunya is called the “Barcelona-Catalunya Grand Prix” rather than the Spanish Grand Prix, as we have a new round in Madrid later in the year.
It’s the second European race of the year, following last weekend’s chaotic race in Monaco. Let’s have a look at the dynamics and as always, this article will be updated with betting picks as we get closer to the sessions.
Preview
Kimi Antonelli has won five races in a row and looks unstoppable if we simply look at the championship table. His unlucky and underperforming teammate George Russell will undoubtedly try to get back in track at Catalunya. And then we have some outsiders that might compete for the win as well: The McLarens had an off-weekend in Monaco, but showed very good pace in Japan, Miami and Canada.
Last year, it was indeed McLaren that dominated at this track. It doesn’t mean much now though, as all the cars have completely different features. The race at Catalunya last year was also marked by Max Verstappen’s horrible decision to run into George Russell on purpose, losing important points that – as it turned out – could have secured him the title by the end of the year.
In terms of previous performance, Max Verstappen is the top driver at this track. He took his first GP win here in 2016, and won the race three years straight from 2022 to 2024. Considering Verstappen’s improving form – he finished on the podium in Canada, and had an excellent qualifying in Monaco – he might just be able to challenge the Mercedes drivers. The long main straight could also suit the RBPT-engine well.
Among active drivers, it’s Lewis Hamilton who has the most wins. He’s won 6 times at Catalunya, although only in years where he had the best car. He did get second place in 2023, so even in his later years, he’s still a specialist at this track.
Among younger drivers, it should be noted that Arvid Lindblad had an incredible F2 performance at this track last year. Oliver Bearman also did well here in F2, but it didn’t translate to a strong F1 performance at Catalunya in his rookie year, so we’ll have to see how it works out for them this year. It could be speculated that the older experienced drivers have a bigger edge at this track than the youngsters – simply because of all the testing mileage they’ve done throughout the years at Catalunya. They just know the track so well, while younger drivers now test more in Bahrain.
My expected team performance rankings for this weekend are:
- Mercedes
- McLaren
- Red Bull
- Ferrari
- Racing Bulls
- Alpine
- Audi
- Haas
- Williams
- Aston Martin
- Cadillac
Bets
Bets will be posted ahead of the main sessions! Check in on Friday and Saturday nights to find betting picks ahead of qualifying and the race.
Race
Verstappen to beat Norris @ 2.62 (1 unit) (Bet365)
Extremely close between the two in qualy. Fair that Norris is a slight favourite, but he shouldn’t be a big one – this is one of Verstappen’s best tracks, and we’ve seen McLaren have reliability issues. (Fair odds 2.38)
Russell to win the race @ 1.79 (1 unit) (Betfair)
Russell could lose a position or two in the start, but he should have the opportunity to take back the lead, driving the best car. This is a track with a very high pole-to-win ratio, so the price seems to hold some value. (Fair odds 1.70)
Lindblad top 10 @ 2.00 (1 unit) (Bwin)
He starts 11th but had a fairly unlucky qualifying session. Lawson showed the car can get into top 10, and it has been surprisingly reliable this season. It wouldn’t take much for Lindblad to score, and he was excellent at this track in F2. (Fair odds 1.80)
Stroll to beat Alonso @ 3.25 (1 unit) (Bet365)
Not that I like betting Stroll, but this is one of his better tracks, and he beat Alonso in qualifying for the first time in years. With that in mind, odds 3.25 is too high, especially considering that the AM is unreliable as well. (Fair odds 2.86)
Qualifying
Gasly to beat Colapinto @ 1.769 (2 units) (Pinnacle)
Gasly is usually much more favoured against Colapinto. But he was slower in practice, so now we get a great price that I have to lock in. The Frenchman has put in some great performances at this track since 2023 and is just an excellent qualifier. Colapinto had a tough weekend in Barcelona last year, although it was one of his strongest tracks in F2. (Fair odds 1.50)
Lindblad to beat Lawson @ 2.17 (1.5 units) (SBO)
Lindblad has an excellent junior record at this track. In FP2, he was faster than Lawson although it may not mean too much due to different tyre stints. Still, I see this as a 50-50 matchup, so let’s place a bit on odds 2.17 (Fair odds 2.00)
