Melbourne hosts the first F1 race of 2025. This could be one of the best seasons ever, and we are all excited to see the levels of the teams and the new drivers in Australia. Here’s our preview!
Australian GP news and buildup
As the first race of the season, there’s a lot to be excited about. Australia just feels like the proper place to begin the year.
Home hero Oscar Piastri extended his contract with McLaren just before the race. McLaren happens to be the big favorite as the British team performed strongly during winter testing. Especially in long runs and race sims.
Experts predict that there’s almost nothing between Ferrari, Mercedes and Red Bull. It will be interesting to see who comes out as the second-fastest team behind McLaren.
The track
After changes to the track in 2022, Melbourne is now more of a high-speed circuit than it was before. Drivers race close to the walls on several sections.
58 laps have to be completed. In terms of tyre wear, the track puts medium stress on the tyres. It doesn’t feature low or high levels of downforce but ranks somewhere in the middle.
In previous years, results at Melbourne were not always indicative of the teams’ performance levels. With the recent changes, that has changed. If the conditions are clear, Albert Park should give a pretty solid overview of how the teams rank compared to each other. But…
Weather forecast
Tricky conditions are predicted for the Australian Grand Prix.
On Saturday, it should be very hot, cloudy and dry. There’s a 40% probability of rain on Sunday afternoon, with a 55% probability in the hours leading up to the race. In other words, conditions could be mixed. It could easily start wet and become dry. There could also be showers during the race. This would bring excitement, but at the same time, it would give us less of an idea about which teams have the best package for the races ahead.
Wet conditions could produce a crazy race as the grid features many inexperienced drivers. Keep an eye on the TV times, as rain may postpone the race on Sunday. It’s scheduled to start at 3 pm local time. You can convert into your time here.
Favourites and underdogs
Based on winter testing, the McLaren seems to be the fastest car, followed by Ferrari, Mercedes and Red Bull.
We expect the two McLaren drivers, Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, to fight for the win in Melbourne. Norris should be outright faster, but if he messes up his start, Piastri could have a solid shot at winning as well.
It’s also important to remember that anything can happen in racing. Charles Leclerc won in Australia in 2022 and could get another victory if the Ferrari is faster than we expect.
The Italian team won in Australia last year with Carlos Sainz, but their new car is an entirely different concept, so their track advantage may not necessarily persist.
We can never rule out Max Verstappen, even if his car is no longer the fastest. In wet conditions, Verstappen could be seen as the favorite, as car performance will matter a bit less.
Williams could be the surprise of the year. Carlos Sainz is strong at this track (he won it last year), while Alex Albon is weak at Albert Park. Williams also set the fastest lap time in winter testing in Bahrain.
Haas disappointed in winter testing, but it seems like the American team was sandbagging. We wouldn’t be surprised if one of the two Haas drivers finishes in the points.
Previous results
Here are the last 10 winners of the Australian Grand Prix:
2024: Carlos Sainz (Ferrari)
2023: Max Verstappen (Red Bull)
2022: Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)
2020-21: No race
2019: Valtteri Bottas (Mercedes)
2018: Sebastian Vettel (Ferrari)
2017: Sebastian Vettel (Ferrari)
2016: Nico Rosberg (Mercedes)
2015: Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
2014: Nico Rosberg (Mercedes)
2013: Kimi Raikkonen (Lotus)
Drivers who usually thrive at Albert Park are:
- Lando Norris
- Carlos Sainz
- Nico Hülkenberg
- Yuki Tsunoda
Norris is 4-0 in qualifying and 4-0 in races against his teammates when driving in Australia. He has a very strong record, although his McLaren has never been the best at this track. That could change this year.
Sainz has been great at the track during its new configuration. He was average in his early years at Albert Park, but the track changes seem to suit him.
Hülkenberg has always performed favourably in Australia. He usually ends up scoring points and has outqualified and outraced his teammates more often than not on this track.
Tsunoda has done well in Melbourne. In 2022, he was slightly off the pace of Gasly, but he has improved a lot since. In the last two seasons, he’s been comfortably ahead of his teammates and scored points on both occasions, with 7th last year.
Drivers who typically underperform at Albert Park are:
- Alex Albon
- Lewis Hamilton
- Max Verstappen
- Pierre Gasly
- Oscar Piastri
Considering the top cars they’ve been driving, it’s a bit of a surprise that Lewis Hamilton has only won in Australia twice and that Max Verstappen has only won once. Considering how many times they’ve raced on this track, it can’t be just a fluke. To be fair, Hamilton has had a bit of bad luck in races here. Both are still top drivers, of course – but in Australia, they may have less of an advantage than usual.
Albon has a bad record at Albert Park as well. Gasly typically underperforms a bit compared to usual.
It’s too early to say whether Piastri is strong or not in his home race. But in his two races thus far, he’s been a bit behind Norris on pace in both qualifying and races. Let’s see if this year’s race will be any different.
Betting on the 2025 Australian GP
We will be adding our bets in another article in the final hours up until the sessions.
Update: You’ll find them here.
Our prediction
Pole position: Lando Norris (McLaren)
Race winner: Lando Norris (McLaren)
2nd: Oscar Piastri (McLaren)
3rd: Max Verstappen (Red Bull)