Christian Horner stated that at the end of 2008, Red Bull got close to signing Fernando Alonso. Helmut Marko went to see Alonso’s management team and offered the Spaniard a two-year contract which would have put Alonso in the OP Newey-designed Red Bull car.
Sadly, Alonso was insisting on a one year deal, while Red Bull insisted on a two year deal – so ultimately, nothing happened.
But what if one of the two parties were more flexible and a contract had been signed? Let’s see how Alonso would have performed in the 2009 Red Bull, whether or not it would have resulted in an extension, and how the secondary effects would have impacted the rest of the field.
2009 season
In this fantasy scenario, Fernando Alonso announces in late 2008 that he will be driving for Red Bull in 2009. The contract is a 2-year deal with a clause that allows Alonso to leave after just one year if the team is not in the top 4 of the WCC by the end of 2009.
After Sebastian Vettel’s fantastic 2008 season for Toro Rosso, he is promoted to Red Bull to partner Alonso.
Flavio Briatore brings his former client Mark Webber to Renault as he is considered the best option on the market.
Alternate lineups:
Red Bull: Alonso – Vettel
Renault: Webber – Piquet Jr
Results-wise, Red Bull had the fastest car to end the season. Vettel came 11 points short of Button for the title, but it’s very likely that Alonso (very close to his peak) would have been more consistent throughout the year and maximised the performance of the RB5. In other words, the partnership would have been an instant success and resulted in Alonso winning the championship.
Renault had a horrible 2009 car. Nelson Piquet Jr (who wasn’t a bad driver) didn’t score a single point. Mark Webber would probably have managed a few points, but nowhere near the 26 points Alonso scored for Renault in reality.
Alternate standings:
1. Alonso (Red Bull)
2. Button (Brawn)
3. Vettel (Red Bull)
2010 season
Alonso is more than happy to stay with Red Bull for 2010. In fact, he now signs a long-term contract with the team. The only concern is that Vettel might become a threat in the future…
With Alonso deciding to race for Red Bull, it’s very likely that Kimi Raikkonen simply stays at Ferrari. In reality, he was forced out by Alonso’s move and paid generously to leave the team. But Kimi enjoyed racing and had no beef with Ferrari, so he would also be happy staying.
Webber is joined by Kubica at Renault. Petrov never debuts, or if he does, it will be for one of the new teams on the grid.
Lineups:
Red Bull: Alonso – Vettel
Ferrari: Raikkonen – Massa
Renault: Webber – Kubica
Alonso likely wins another title in the ultra-fast but slightly unreliable RB6. Vettel gets closer, but is not consistent or mature enough to beat Alonso yet, even though they are roughly equal in qualifying sessions. With the improved results by having Alonso driving next to Vettel, the RB6 is seen as one of the most dominating cars ever.
Massa had the edge over Raikkonen in 2008 and 2009. But post-injury Massa wasn’t quite the same, so Raikkonen is back on top in 2010 but the two Ferrari drivers just rank #4 and #6 in the standings.
Kubica was one of the best drivers in 2010 and now he is rated even higher as he beats Webber.
Alternate standings:
1. Alonso (Red Bull)
2. Vettel (Red Bull)
3. Hamilton (McLaren)
2011 season
No major changes to the grid.
Sadly, Kubica had his rally accident ahead of the 2011 season. To keep things simple, we also replace him with Nick Heidfeld, although it’s possible that Renault would simply bring in Petrov a year later as in this scenario, he didn’t debut in 2010. Maybe Petrov would be replacing Heidfeld by midseason, rather than Bruno Senna who was the real-life stand-in.
Lineups:
Red Bull: Alonso – Vettel
Ferrari: Raikkonen – Massa
Renault: Webber – Heidfeld/Petrov
Now it gets really heated at Red Bull. Vettel finally reached his full potential in 2011, but this was also Alonso’s peak. It would have been a very, very close title fight, reminiscent of 2007 to Alonso’s horror.
Yet, the Spaniard was just so fast in 2011 that we believe he would have come out ahead by a few points and secured his fifth championship.
That leads to some more questions: With such a close battle, would one of Alonso or Vettel have to leave the team? In that case, which one? Vettel was the darling of Red Bull during this era in real life, but with Alonso having won three titles in a row, and overall the better performer, it would be difficult to force him out. Perhaps Vettel would be the one looking for a contract elsewhere ahead of 2012.
Raikkonen again beats Massa at Ferrari, while Webber beats whoever is next to him at Renault.
Alternate standings:
1. Alonso (Red Bull)
2. Vettel (Red Bull)
3. Button (McLaren)
2012 season
As mentioned in the 2011 recap, it is likely that one of the Red Bull drivers would leave after such a tense battle, and we imagine it to be Vettel. He is still young, and despite being without a title, he is considered a really good driver. Ferrari take the chance on him, replacing the underperforming Massa and provide us with the easy-going Vettel-Raikkonen lineup a few years earlier than in reality.
Massa goes to Lotus, while Red Bull have to find a second driver for Alonso. They feel a need to promote within their own rankings: Their most promising talent Ricciardo isn’t quite ready yet, so they just sign Sebastien Buemi for a one year deal.
Lineups:
Red Bull: Alonso – Buemi
Ferrari: Raikkonen – Vettel
Lotus: Webber – Massa
With the top cars being super close this year, no team is completely dominant. Alonso is the best driver though, and wins with a slightly larger margin than Vettel did in real life.
Vettel is the main challenger at Ferrari, but Raikkonen also performs well. The McLarens are fast, but inconsistent as it actually happened, and the Lotus drivers Webber and Massa surprisingly score a lot of points due to the car being very easy on the tyres.
Ferrari win the constructor’s title, despite not having the best car, but simply two solid drivers.
Alternate results:
1. Alonso (Red Bull)
2. Vettel (Ferrari)
3. Raikkonen (Ferrari)
2013 season
Alonso continues with Red Bull. The team now promotes Ricciardo, one year ahead of schedule, as Buemi underperformed in 2012.
The other lineups stay the same, and Hamilton moves to Mercedes, with Pérez replacing him at McLaren, as it actually happened. In this scenario, Hamilton considered Ferrari too, though, but the rumours of a dominant 2014 Mercedes engine still made Brackley the better prospect.
Lineups:
Red Bull: Alonso – Ricciardo
Ferrari: Vettel – Raikkonen
Lotus: Webber – Massa
Alonso dominantly wins the title: His seventh, and now people start to call him the GOAT, although 2007 vs. Hamilton is still an argument used against him.
Ricciardo has a good, but not great year for Red Bull. Mercedes show some promise, while Vettel now clearly establishes himself as the top driver at Ferrari, beating Kimi clearly.
Alternate standings:
1. Alonso (Red Bull)
2. Vettel (Ferrari)
3. Ricciardo (Red Bull)
2014-2018 and beyond
Now, Mercedes begin to dominate, and there’s simply nothing Fernando Alonso can do about it. He can win races for Red Bull, but the championship is just not within reach, and Mercedes simply won’t sign him.
Should Alonso stay at Milton Keynes for all these years, he will eventually be joined by Max Verstappen for possibly the most explosive team mate battle ever. Perhaps in this case the two drivers won’t like each other as much as they do in real life.
It is possible that Alonso will try a move back to McLaren in 2015 as he did in real life, after realising that Red Bull did not exactly nail the new regulations. It would not be as disastrous as in real life, as Alonso can afford bad decisions with 7 titles already in the bag. But obviously the partnership between Alonso, McLaren and Honda would still be extremely unsuccessful.
Another option is going to Ferrari. So far in this Alonso-Red Bull scenario, he has not driven for the Scuderia yet, something that is the dream of every racing driver. If he joins Ferrari, he will have the chance to fight for the title in 2017 and 2018.
Having achieved this much success, Alonso probably wouldn’t hang around much beyond 2018.
Maybe he would eventually try a comeback, as he did in real life, since he and Hamilton would be tied at 7 titles following the Mercedes-dominated era. The Alonso/Hamilton discussion would go on forever, with neither of the two being able to secure that elusive 8th title.
However, Alonso’s career would just look so much better had he just accepted that deal with Red Bull back in late 2008.