Perhaps one of the most difficult F1 weekends this year in terms of betting. But let’s see if we can find some value.
Qualifying
Only three bets for qualifying, as we know very little after the first two practice sessions.
Sainz > Albon @ 1.95 (1 unit) (Bwin)
Sainz has performed well in Las Vegas (although limited sample size) and is overall ahead 11-9 against Albon in qualifying this year.
Hadjar > Lawson @ 1.45 (1 unit) (Unibet)
Essentially an automatic bet for me recently. Hadjar is just way faster over one lap. 14-5 so far this year, we don’t know how Hadjar will perform at this track though, but Lawson wasn’t very good in Vegas previously.
Bortoleto > Hülkenberg @ 2.75 (1 unit) (Bet365)
It’s fairly even between Bortoleto and Hülkenberg in qualifying sessions. Bortoleto is ahead 11-9 but has dropped off a bit recently. The odds should probably only favour Hülkenberg slightly, so I like the 2.75 odds here when it’s almost a coinflip between the two.
Race
Russell > Piastri @ 1.628 (Pinnacle) (1 unit)
I really like Russell this weekend. He was flying in qualifying until an issue in Q3. Piastri is in horrible form and didn’t show much this weekend. Russell should be able to keep him behind.
Russell top 3 @ 1.60 (Bwin) (1 unit)
Russell should also be able to pass Sainz and reach the podium.
Russell to win the race @ 11.45 (Betfair) (0.25 unit)
More of a longshot but again, I really like Russell here and don’t think it’s impossible for him to win it, especially if Norris and Verstappen focus too much on each other. I would say there’s a 10% chance so it’s a risky bet, but one that holds value imo.
Alonso > Hamilton @ 1.99 (Pinnacle) (0.5 unit)
Alonso had a decent qualifying and with Hamilton starting at the back, I like betting the Spaniard here. Obviously everything can be turned upside down if there is a lap 1 incident or a later safety car, but if not, Alonso has much better conditions here.
Antonelli > Hamilton @ 1.67 (Pinnacle) (0.5 unit)
With both starting further down, I think Antonelli has better chances of advancing due to his superior car.
Verstappen > Norris @ 2.08 (Unibet) (1 unit)
Despite Norris being far ahead in Q3, I’m still not convinced the McLaren is that strong on this track. Verstappen has a chance and having this bet makes the race a bit more fun, especially if something should go wrong with the Russell bets.