Let’s make some bets for the final and most decisive race weekend of the year!
A reminder that bets are always posted on Bettin.gs and Reddit as well.
Qualifying
Norris pole @ 1.969 (Betfair) (1 unit)
The odds after commission. Norris has the overall fastest practice session thus far, this is an ideal McLaren-track, and he needs a great qualifying to secure a good result in the race. Let’s go!
Ocon > Bearman @ 3.25 (Bet365) (1 unit)
Am I missing something here? Bearman has had the upper hand recently and deserves to be a favourite, but 3.25 is fairly high for Ocon in this matchup. Ocon missed FP1, but was back up to speed by Saturday morning, and this is a good track for him. He should be priced around 2.75 in this matchup, so we’ll take 3.25.
Piastri > Russell @ 1.85 (Bwin) (1 unit)
Generous for the bookmakers to have these two at even odds. Russell was fastest in the final practice, but this looks to be a McLaren track, Piastri returned to form last week, and Russell is just okay at this track.
Gasly > Colapinto @ 1.30 (Unibet) (1 unit)
This might be Colapinto’s worst tracks, while it suits Gasly quite well. Anything can happen in Q1, but Gasly is by far the best qualifiers of these two.
Race
Sainz > Lawson @ 1.694 (Pinnacle) (1 unit)
Sainz is the better driver here and starts a position ahead. He’s been very unlucky with smaller car failures throughout the year, but his form is going up and Lawson is usually a weak opponent in a betting matchup.
Piastri not on the podium @ 2.82 (Betfair) (1 unit)
Piastri starts third, and under normal circumstances he should finish on the podium, but a lot can go wrong: Another McLaren blunder, having to let Norris go by if Norris is running fourth by the end, or simply being overtaken by just one of the drivers behind. The 2.82 price – by laying 1.52 on Betfair – is very generous.